Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 01 2023 - 00Z Fri Nov 03 2023

...Much colder Fall temperatures to bring widespread Frost/Freeze from the
Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic...

...Snow showers to swing across the Great Lakes and parts of the Midwest...

...Atmospheric River ushers in wet weather to the Pacific Northwest by
midweek...

A strong cold front has ushered in some of the coldest temperatures of the
Fall throughout the central/eastern U.S. After a brisk Halloween evening,
temperatures are expected to fall to near or below freezing from the
Southern Plains east through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
and into the Appalachians Wednesday morning, and further into the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by Thursday Morning. Widespread Frost and
Freeze-related Advisories are in place, and numerous record-tying/breaking
low temperatures may be realized. It is likely many areas will end their
growing season over the next few days from the Southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic, including parts of the Deep South.  Exposed water pipes will
also be at risk of freezing or bursting if proper precautions are not
taken. Afternoon high temperatures will also be well below average, with
most locations outside of far South Texas and Florida only in the 50s
Wednesday, including some 40s for the Tennessee Valley. Highs should
rebound a bit on Thursday as the airmass moderates with mid-50s and 60s
expected. The Storm Prediction Center has noted the risk for some elevated
fire weather conditions along the Gulf Coast where temperatures will be a
bit warmer and conditions will be dry with gusty winds following the
frontal passage.

Within this cold airmass in place, a compact area of low pressure cutting
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today will provide the chance for
scattered snow showers this evening and into early Wednesday, especially
for favored lake-effect regions where some light to moderate accumulations
are forecast.  Precipitation chances will spread eastward into the
Northeast during the day Wednesday, with some light rain showers for lower
elevation and coastal locations and a mix of rain/snow for some of the
local mountain ranges, though little to no accumulations are expected.
High temperatures will be chilly with 30s and 40s for most locations.

Heavier rain is expected to impact the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday
evening to kick off the start of November. An Atmospheric River moving
onshore Washington and Oregon will produce a few inches of rain by the end
of the day on Thursday, with warm Pacific air also rising snow levels
above 8000 feet so that even most of the Cascades experience moderate to
locally heavy rain. Some isolated flooding is possible especially as soils
become more saturated after previously drier conditions. Precipitaiton
chances should spread further inland into the Northern Rockies by Thursday
with a mix of rain and some light snow. High temperatures will generally
be above average along the immediate West Coast, with 60s for the Pacific
Northwest and northern California, 70s for central California, and 80s for
southern California. Conditions will be closer to average but still mild
further into the Interior West with 50s and 60s for much of the Rockies
and Great Basin and 70s and 80s in the Desert Southwest.

Putnam/Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php