Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 12 2023 - 00Z Tue Nov 14 2023

...Unsettled weather anticipated across the Pacific Northwest and into
northern California over the next few days...

...Strong winds forecast through early Sunday across parts of the northern
Great Basin and northern High Plains...

...Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding possible throughout
South Texas on Sunday and southern Louisiana on Monday...

A series of frontal systems impacting the Pacific Northwest through the
end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week will bring periods
of moderate rainfall and heavy mountain snow. The first system continues
to race eastward across the northern Great Basin today and into the
northern Plains tonight. Heavy snow will accompany the strong push of
Pacific moisture, with the highest amounts located across the northern
Cascades and northwest Montana. Additionally, strong winds are expected
from eastern Washington to northern Montana through early Sunday, with
maximum wind gusts up to 80 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front. As a
result, High Wind Warnings are in effect throughout north-central Montana,
with Wind Advisories stretching into Washington and northeast Montana.
These strong winds may produce tree damage, isolated power outages, and
dangerous driving conditions for high profile vehicles due to cross winds.
The next system will approach the region on Monday with another round of
coastal rain and mountain snow, with precipitation also extending as far
south as northern California.

For the central and eastern U.S., a strong area of high pressure is
forecast to remain in place for much of the region and lead to mostly dry
conditions. Heavy rain is possible; however, just to the north of a
stationary front lingering over the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms are most likely to occur over South Texas on Sunday
before migrating eastward along the Gulf Coast toward southern Louisiana
on Monday. Much of this region could use the rainfall as drought
conditions exist, but urban locations could still experience isolated
flash flooding where intense rainfall rates occur. South Texas is an area
that has experienced heavy rainfall recently, which could lead to more
scattered flash flood concerns on Sunday.

Precipitation chances also exist through tonight across the Southeast as
light rain eventually exits by Sunday afternoon. There is also rain and
snow shower chances from northern Wisconsin to the U.P. of Michigan
overnight tonight north of a warm front.

Below average temperatures over the next few days are forecast to be
confined to the East Coast (underneath High Pressure) and Texas (ample
cloud cover). The rest of the Nation can expected above average high
temperatures on Sunday and Monday that top out in the 50s and 60s, except
where 70s and 80s remain in the Southwest.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php