Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023 - 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Texas...

...Light snow will develop over portions of the Northern Cascades and
Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday; light snow over Northern New
England on Monday...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
Upper Midwest...

A front lingering near the Southeast Coast and the Gulf Coast will slowly
move away from the Southeast Coast, while a wave of low pressure over the
western end of the boundary moves to just south of Louisiana by Tuesday.
Upper-level energy over the Southeast will trigger light rain over parts
of the Southeast on Sunday. In addition, upper-level low over Northwestern
Mexico will aid in drawing moisture off the Western Gulf of Mexico,
producing heavy rain over the southern tip of Texas. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the southern tip of
Texas through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly to a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western/Central Gulf
Coast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific moves onshore over the Pacific
Northwest by Sunday afternoon and then the boundary moves eastward to the
Northern Plains by Tuesday. The system will produce rain over parts of the
Pacific Northwest through late Monday. Additionally, light snow will
develop over the Northern Cascades and Northern Rockies.

Moreover, on Sunday, a front over the Northern Plains will move eastward
to the Great Lakes by Monday. Wind out of the south ahead of the front
will allow temperatures to be 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of
the Upper Midwest. The associated warm front will trigger light rain over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday. On Monday, the front will move
across the Northeast, producing rain and higher-elevation snow over parts
of Northern New England.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php