Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 15 2023

...Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to cross over the
drought-stricken Gulf Coast states...

...Some accumulating snow expected for the higher elevations of the
Washington Cascades and Northern Rockies over the next few days...

...Mild air expected across much of the Intermountain West and stretching
east across large areas of the Plains and Midwest...

A storm system developing offshore of southern Texas will move gradually
east across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, and this
will bring a swath of moderate to locally heavy rain for portions of the
drought-stricken Gulf Coast states. Given the very dry antecedent
conditions, these rains will be very beneficial in nature and there may be
locally a few inches of rain that falls. Any flooding concerns should be
minimal and generally confined to the more urbanized locations. The clouds
and rain will also keep temperatures rather cool, and many areas from
southern Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast will see temperatures below
normal.

Meanwhile, a cold front crossing the Pacific Northwest will advance east
across the Northern Rockies by Tuesday before gradually stalling out over
parts of the Intermountain West. The front along with some intrusions of
Pacific moisture will bring a threat for showers, including some
accumulating snowfall for the higher elevations of the Washington Cascades
and the Northern Rockies. The higher peaks may see locally in excess of 6
inches of new snow by the middle of the week. Some of this moisture will
also be influenced by a developing area of low pressure offshore of
California which will slowly drop southward and meander off the coast
going through the middle of the week. This will bring some light to
moderate rainfall into California and may even bring a few inches of snow
to the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

Elsewhere, aside from a weak area of low pressure crossing portions of
northern New England and bringing some light snowfall here early this
week, the story for the remainder of the nation will be the very mild and
dry weather. Much of the nation is dominated by an airmass of Pacific
origins, with all of the cold, Arctic air currently focused well to the
north over central and northern Canada. Over the next few days, very mild
weather will continue across especially areas of the Intermountain West,
the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest where temperatures will
be as much as 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php