Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 14 2023 - 00Z Thu Nov 16 2023

...Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to cross over the
drought-stricken Gulf Coast states...

...Mild air expected across much of the Intermountain West and stretching
east across large areas of the Plains and Midwest...

An upper level trough will move eastward across the Southern Plains
tonight, reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday. This feature,
in combination with a slow moving low pressure center along a front in the
Gulf and anomalously high moisture will help to support a broad swath of
rain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast over the next couple of days.
Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible at times for the central
Gulf Coast beginning tonight and continuing through Tuesday night, but
given ongoing drought conditions due to a lack of appreciable rain over
the past several months, much of this rain should be welcome given the
exceptional drought (Level 5 out of 5) that is in place for the Lower
Mississippi Valley. On Wednesday, the threat for locally heavy rain will
include portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula. Should any areas of
flooding occur, they should be localized and likely confined to urban
locations. Abundant cloud cover should also have the effect of keeping
daytime maximum temperatures 5 to 10 degrees colder than mid-November
averages through Wednesday across the Gulf Coast states.

A closed upper level low over the eastern Pacific Ocean and a series of
upper level disturbances clipping the northern tier states will maintain
the placement of a quasi-stationary front at the surface from northern
California into the northern High Plains into the middle of the week.
While the temperature gradient across this front will not be especially
strong, unsettled weather will exist near the boundary including light
accumulations of snow for the higher terrain of the northern Cascades and
Rocky Mountains.

Across the central to eastern U.S., high pressure will dominate through
Wednesday, keeping precipitation at bay for most of the region. Light rain
and snow showers are likely for portions of the Northeast tonight as an
upper level trough passes over the region, but after that, no
precipitation is forecast through Wednesday night from the Great Plains to
the East Coast (with the exception of the Gulf Coast region mentioned
earlier). Mild, southerly return flow on the western side of the ridge
will keep high temperatures from the central and northern High Plains to
the Midwest 10 to 25 degrees above average through Wednesday under mostly
sunny skies. Warmer than average temperatures (10 to 20 degree departures
from mid-November averages) will also exist for much of the Intermountain
West through mid-week.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php