Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023 - 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023

...Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to continue to focus across
portions of the Gulf Coast states through the middle of the week...

...Very heavy rainfall and a threat of urban flash flooding will be a
concern for portions of southern Florida on Wednesday...

...Mild air will continue in place across much of the Intermountain West
and stretching east across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley this
week...

A storm system currently over the western Gulf of Mexico will move
gradually east over the next couple of days and will continue to bring
cool temperatures and a threat of moderate to locally heavy rain to
portions of the Gulf Coast. Many areas of the Gulf Coast region are in a
drought, and so any rainfall here will be very beneficial in nature.
However, by later Wednesday, this storm system will move into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico along with a frontal system that will be draped near
southern Florida. Strong energy aloft helping to drive this storm system
and associated low pressure eastward will combine with the front and
tropical moisture pooling along it for areas of very heavy rainfall
potential. This will especially be the case for southern Florida and
potentially the highly urbanized I-95 corridor from West Palm Beach and
Fort Lauderdale down through Miami. Locally several inches of rain will be
possible across these areas, and there will be a notable concern for urban
flash flooding should these rains materialize. The Weather Prediction
Center has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall at this time to
address these concerns.

Meanwhile, a front will remain generally stalled out going through the
middle of the week across portions of the northern Great Basin and
adjacent areas of the Northern Rockies which coupled with the arrival of a
couple of weak waves of low pressure and Pacific moisture should bring a
threat of shower activity. The heaviest precipitation should generally be
on Wednesday and focused over the Bitterroots where heavy snowfall can be
expected. Some of the higher peaks are expected to receive as much as 6 to
12 inches of snow before a new cold front crosses the region by Thursday
followed by high pressure and drier conditions.

Unsettled weather can be expected to impact California over the next few
days as a storm system off the West Coast continues to meander and moves
only very slowly eastward through the middle to latter part of the week.
Pacific moisture though will be streaming inland and there will be areas
of light to moderate rain, and especially for the coastal ranges. Some
light accumulating snowfall will be possible for the higher terrain of the
Sierra Nevada.

The remainder of the country going through the middle to latter part of
the week will be generally dry and very mild given the lack of any cold
air push southward from Canada. Temperatures across the Intermountain
West, Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley will be warming to as much as 15 to
25 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php