Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 15 2023 - 00Z Fri Nov 17 2023

...Heavy rainfall and locally significant urban flash flooding threat will
be a concern for portions of southern Florida on Wednesday...

...Unsettled weather remains in the forecast across much of California,
with heavy snow chances throughout the northern Rockies into the middle of
this week...

...Dry and mild conditions continue in the central U.S. before expanding
eastward on Thursday...

A quasi-stationary boundary extending from the Florida Keys to the central
Gulf of Mexico and developing waves of low pressure along it will produce
a few areas of potentially heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast and
southern Florida over the next few days. Through tonight, locally heavy
rain is possible over southeast Louisiana north of a low pressure system.
A few inches of rainfall could lead to isolated flooding in low-lying
areas. Easterly flow into southeast Florida could also create an isolated
urban flash flood risk tonight. A greater risk of significant flash
flooding exists on Wednesday over southern Florida as a separate area of
low pressure develops and the lingering frontal boundary inches closer to
the Gold Coast. A broad area of moderate to locally heavy rain is expected
to have embedded areas of intense rainfall rates that may last for a few
consecutive hours over similar regions. The urban corridor located across
this region will be most at risk to flash flooding due to several inches
of rainfall occurring during a short period of time. Numerous flash floods
are possible into Wednesday night. Residents are advised to remain weather
aware, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and plan ahead. This system
should gradually lift northward along the Florida Atlantic coastline on
Thursday and shift a scattered heavy rainfall threat northward.

The other area of unsettled and wet weather is forecast across California,
the Intermountain West, and northern Rockies through Thursday. A deep
closed upper level low lingering off California will be responsible for
waves of showers until a stronger surge of moisture moves inland Wednesday
night and pushes towards the central Rockies on Thursday. For the most
part, any rain is expected to be beneficial, with snow into the higher
elevations. One location that could see potentially heavy snow is the
northern Rockies, more specifically northwest Montana, as a developing
area of low pressure and frontal boundary provide mechanisms for locally
heavy mountain snow. Snowfall probabilities for greater than 8 inches are
high (>70%) across the Glacier National Park region. The system
responsible for this snowfall is expected to push a cold front eastward
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday.

Dry and mild conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS as high
pressure stretches from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. Cooler
temperatures will remain along the East Coast until Thursday, when above
average temperatures slide eastward. For the most part, highs in the
central U.S. will run 10 to 20 degrees above average over the next few
days, topping out into the 60s and low 70s during the afternoon hours. A
combination of dry vegetation, building drought conditions, low relative
humidity, and light wind could create fire weather concerns from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php