Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023 - 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023

...Heavy rainfall and threat for flash flooding across the eastern Florida
Peninsula today...

...Wet/unsettled weather for California through the rest of the week...

...Another mild day for the Midwest/Great Lakes today with high
temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average...

An area of low pressure along a frontal boundary draped just south of
Florida and a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will help
to maintain a moderate fetch of low level easterly flow into the
southeastern U.S., including Florida today. Anomalous moisture wrapping
around the surface low near Florida and coastal convergence will support
the threat for locally heavy rainfall today and tonight, with potential
for spot rainfall maxima over 5 inches through Friday morning. However,
the threat for the heaviest rainfall looks to be confined to the
southeastern coast early, translating northward during the afternoon and
into tonight before pushing offshore for Friday. Gusty winds up to 40 mph
will also be possible along the eastern Peninsula today due to an
increased pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure to
the north.

Across the West Coast, a slow moving closed upper level low will keep rain
in the forecast for portions of California through Saturday morning,
including a threat for thunderstorms for the central coast of the Golden
State. While rainfall may be heavy at times, rainfall totals are not
expected to be hazardous with generally 1-2 inches expected through
Saturday morning. Light accumulations of snowfall are anticipated for the
higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada as the storm system moves east on
Friday.

Across the Intermountain West to the Great Plains, Great Lakes, Midwest
and East Coast, mild weather will be in store for today with temperatures
above mid-November averages. In fact, parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes
will see high temperatures well into the 60s today which is 15 to 25
degrees above average. A cold front and associated rainfall will bring
temperatures closer to average for Friday into Saturday for the central to
eastern U.S. but mild conditions will remain for much of the remainder of
the country.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php