Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 19 2023 - 00Z Tue Nov 21 2023

...Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows, and coastal/lower elevation rains...

...Storm system forming over the Central High Plains will bring an
expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S....

...Above average temperatures for the South and the Northern Plains while
conditions remain cool for the West...

A digging upper-level trough and frontal system pushing into the West will
continue to spread unsettled weather across the region, including
coastal/lower elevation rains, high elevation snow, and windy conditions
through the weekend. Areas along the Pacific Northwest/northern California
coast will see the heaviest rainfall through Saturday night into early
Sunday, with some thunderstorms possible. Precipiation will spread further
inland across the Great Basin later Saturday and into the Rockies by
Sunday, with mostly rain for lower elevation/valley locations, though some
snow may mix with little to no accumulations expected. Winter-weather
related advisories are in effect for higher elevations of the Cascades,
Sierra, and Wasatch where some heavier snow totals between 6-12", locally
higher, are forecast. Precipitation chances will taper off by late Sunday
for most of the West but likely linger into Monday for the
Central/Southern Rockies. In addition to precipitation, some strong, gusty
winds are expected, with wind-related advisories in place across portions
of the Great Basin and Southern California.

Another storm system looks to organize Sunday over the Central/Southern
High Plains as the upper-level trough over the West continues to dig/push
eastward and encourages lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. Shower and
thunderstorm chances should begin to expand ahead of the system over the
Central/Southern Plains throughout the day Sunday and into the overnight
hours, eventually spreading into the Mississippi Valley Monday. An influx
of low level moisture and strengthening shear with the approaching
upper-level trough may lead to some severe thunderstorms Monday in the
Lower Mississippi Valley, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting
the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5). Damaging winds
and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. In addition,
some locally heavy rainfall is possible with an isolated chance of flash
flooding, though this threat will likely become more prominent into Monday
evening and Tuesday, just beyond the current forecast period.

Elsewhere, the East Coast will be mostly dry following a frontal passage
early Saturday, though some lingering light rain/snow showers are possible
overnight Saturday/early Sunday for portions of the Interior Northeast/New
England. Temperatures will be generally seasonable Sunday but cool and bit
below average for New England on Monday, with highs in the 30s and low
40s. Highs will be running above average Sunday and Monday across the
South, with 60s and 70s, as well as across the Northern Plains, with highs
in the 40s and 50s. Conditions will be below average across much of the
West under the upper-trough, with mainly 40s for the interior
Northwest/Great Basin and 60s and 70s in the Desert Southwest. Highs along
the coast will be closer to seasonable with mostly 50s and 60s, and 70s
for Southern California.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php