Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 - 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023

...Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows, and coastal/lower-elevation rains...

...Low pressure system developing over the central High Plains will bring
an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S.
towards the eastern U.S....

...Above average temperatures for the South and the Northern Plains while
colder air surges across the western U.S....

A vigorous upper-level trough currently hurling onshore into the West
Coast will send a wave of inclement weather rapidly from west to east
across the country through the next couple of days.  The Pacific Northwest
is first in line to feel the impacts from this weather system including
coastal/lower elevation rains, high elevation snow, and the onset of
strong gusty winds today.  These weather conditions are expected to
penetrate quite rapidly inland today behind a dynamic cold front,
overspreading much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin with sharply
falling temperatures by tonight.  Wind-related advisories have been posted
for portions of these areas.

In the meantime, a low pressure system currently developing over the
central High Plains will be energized as the vigorous upper trough sweeps
through the western U.S. today.  Showers and thunderstorms currently
developing over the central Plains ahead of the low pressure system will
likely expand toward the east and northeast for the next few days as the
system expands and intensifies.  This system will also help the mountain
snows and lower-elevation rains to linger a bit longer over the central
Rockies and High Plains through Monday and into Monday night.  On the warm
side of the system, thunderstorms could become severe particularly by
later on Monday across the Deep South as a warm front lifts northeastward
across the region with an influx of warm and moist air from the Gulf of
Mexico.  By Tuesday morning, the center of the low pressure system is
forecast to reach into the Ohio Valley with widespread rainfall from the
lower Great Lakes down into the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians and
into the interior Southeast.  Thunderstorms could again reach severe
levels across the Mid-South and possibly down toward the central Gulf
Coast as the dynamic cold front sweeps across the region from west to east.

Farther north, colder air from Canada could bring some light wintry mix
into the upper Midwest early on Tuesday.  The same can be said for
interior New England today into tonight with the passage of an arctic
front.  The remainder of the East Coast will be mostly dry through Tuesday
morning before the leading edge of the moisture from the Ohio Valley storm
arrives. Temperatures will be generally seasonable for the East Coast,
cool and bit below average for New England, but will remain mild over the
northern Plains. In contrast, temperatures will be below average across
much of the West with the passage of the upper trough. Highs along the
coast will be closer to seasonable with mostly 50s and 60s, and 70s for
southern California.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php