Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 20 2023 - 00Z Wed Nov 22 2023

...High-elevation snows and lower elevation rain continue for the Interior
West Sunday evening, with some gusty winds for the Great Basin and
southern California...

...Enhanced Risk of severe weather for the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday
as a low pressure system brings an expanding area of showers and
thunderstorms to the central/eastern U.S....

...Below average temperatures coming to the Southern Plains/Texas as
temperatures moderate in the West....

A vigorous upper-level trough currently passing over the western U.S. will
send a wave of inclement weather rapidly from west to east across the
country through the next couple of days. While precipitation will taper
off along the West Coast through Sunday afternoon, lower elevation/valley
rain and mountain snow will continue overnight Sunday and into early
Monday for portions of the Great Basin and Rockies as a surface frontal
system pushes through the region. Winter-weather related advisories remain
in effect for some of the regional mountain ranges in the Four Corners
including the Wasatch, Uintas, and San Juans where some moderate to heavy
snow could result in totals of 6-12". Some snow may also mix in at lower
elevations as temperatures cool Sunday night, but little to no
accumulations are expected. In addition, wind-related advisories remain in
place for portions of the Great Basin and southern California where some
strong, gusty winds may linger into the day Monday. 

Meanwhile, as the trough shifts eastward, a lee cyclone will continue to
deepen over the Central/Southern Plains this evening, with returning
moisture ahead of this system leading to increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances. Some of these storms may become severe overnight
Sunday for Oklahoma with large hail possible. However, the higher threat
will be on Monday as the system continues eastward towards the Lower
Mississippi Valley, where the Storm Prediction Center has introduced an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather. Increasingly moist southerly
flow as well as both strong low-level and deep-layer shear as the
upper-level trough approaches may lead to several instances of damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes, including the risk of a strong tornado
or two. Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will broadly expand in
coverage from the Mississippi Valley Monday into the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
and Tennessee Valley by Tuesday as the system continues eastward. Some
locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will also be possible.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will remain below average from New
England south into the Mid-Atlantic following a frontal passage, with 30s
and 40s for New England and 50s into the Mid-Atlantic. In the South,
conditions will be unseasonably warm ahead of the approaching frontal
system, with 70s and even some 80s along the Gulf Coast. The digging
trough over the central U.S. will bring cooler and below average
temperatures south into the Southern Plains and Texas by Tuesday, with
widespread 50s expected.  Highs will be more seasonably cool further north
across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes with mainly 40s forecast.
Temperatures will moderate in the West after a cooler weekend, with 40s
and 50s for the Great Basin/Rockies, 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest
and northern California, and 70s for Southern California and the Desert
Southwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php