Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sun Nov 26 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 26 2023 - 12Z Tue Nov 28 2023

...Moderate to heavy rain possible along the Gulf Coast and the northern
Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts...

...Moderate to heavy lake-effect snowfall for portions of the Upper Great
Lakes Sunday and Lower Great Lakes beginning Monday..

...Tranquil weather on tap from the Plains west to the West Coast...

...Below average temperatures common for much of the country to start the
work week...

An energetic upper-level trough and series of surface frontal systems
passing through the eastern U.S. on Sunday will lead to increased
precipitation chances broadly across the region, with some locally heavy
rainfall and lake-effect snow expected. Showers and thunderstorms will
begin first along the Gulf Coast and into Florida Sunday morning and
continue into the afternoon, with some locally heavy rainfall possible
particularly from the Florida Big Bend northward into southern Georgia. A
coastal low developing near the Carolinas and pushing northward will help
to enhance rainfall chances northward through the Mid-Atlantic and into
New England by early Sunday evening and continuing overnight, with some
areas of moderate to heavy rainfall possible for southern New England. The
rain should taper off for the Gulf Coast/Southeast and Southern New
England by Monday but will continue for coastal Maine through Monday
evening.

Meanwhile, in the colder air to the northwest, a wintry mix is likely
Sunday from the Middle Mississippi Valley northeastward through the
Midwest, the Appalachians, and into the interior Northeast. Any
accumulations should be minimal except where a couple inches or so will be
possible for some of the mountain ranges of the interior Northeast and
into northern Maine. However, more moderate lake-effect snowfall is
forecast for favorable regions along the north shore of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan and western Lower Michigan Sunday, with 3-6 inches
expected. Then, on Monday, what could end up being several days of heavy
lake-effect snow will begin downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario. Snow totals
for Monday alone could exceed a foot.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected for the Plains and western U.S. as
the Winter Storm over the Holiday for the Rockies/Plains clears out. Some
gusty winds are possible across portions of the Northern Plains Sunday.
High temperatures will remain below average across most of the country
over the next couple of days, particularly away from the coasts. A broad
area with highs in the 20s and 30s is forecast from the Great Basin east
through the Central Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s for
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and northern portions of the Southern Plains,
with 50s for much of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley, and even as
far south as the Gulf Coast by Monday. Highs in the 50s in the Carolinas
and into the Southeast Sunday will also be below average, though may
moderate some Monday. The Northeast will be a bit closer to average, with
30s and 40s in New England and 40s and 50s into the Mid-Atlantic. The
Northern Rockies/Great Basin and West Coast will be the one location
seeing broadly above average highs as an upper-level ridge moves overhead,
with highs in the 40s for the Northern Rockies/Great Basin, 50s for the
Pacific Northwest, 60s for northern/central California, and 70s into
Southern California. However, clear skies and dry conditions overnight
will result in some lows dropping to at or below freezing for the interior
California Valleys and northern Mojave Desert, with freeze-related
advisories remaining in place.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php