Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 27 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 29 2023

...Heavy lake-effect snowfall downwind of the Great Lakes early this
week...

...Below average temperatures continue for much of the country for at
least the next few days...

Mean northwesterly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes as low pressure
pivots through the region will continue to bring lake-effect snows to
favorable locations south of Lake Superior and east of Lake Michigan
Monday. The heaviest additional snowfall will be south of Lake Superior in
the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with 4-6", locally higher, expected.
Another 2-4" will be possible east of Lake Michigan over the western Lower
Peninsula of Michigan. The focus then shifts eastward later Monday and
into Tuesday as very heavy bands of lake-effect snow are forecast
downwind/east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Totals of 12-18" are forecast
in the heavier snow bands, with locally higher totals over 2 feet
possible. Otherwise, the rest of the country will be mostly dry outside of
some lingering showers for coastal Maine Monday as low pressure departs to
the northeast. Some light snow accumulations will also continue further
northward into Maine. A Pacific system moving towards the northern/central
California coast may bring some showers by later Tuesday. 

The other main story weather-wise will be continued high temperatures
running 10-20 degrees below average for much of the country following a
series of frontal passages and broad upper troughing in place over the
eastern/central U.S. Highs along the East Coast Monday will be a bit more
moderate than this weekend before a cold front brings chillier
temperatures Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s for New
England, the Mid-Atlantic, and even into the Carolinas, with 50s for the
Southeast and Gulf Coast/north Florida. Chilly highs in the 20s and 30s
are expected for the Great Lakes/Midwest with 30s and 40s from the Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Highs will be in the
50s for Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.    

While temperatures in some portions of the Interior West from the Great
Basin into the Central Rockies will remain below average, with highs in
the 30s and 40s, the West overall will see more moderate temperatures as
an upper-level ridge passes over the region. Areas in the Northern Rockies
southward through the adjacent northern and central High Plains will see
highs into the 40s and 50s by Tuesday. The Pacific Northwest will be in
the 50s with 60s southward into California and 70s into the Desert
Southwest. However, morning lows near or below freezing will continue to
remain a concern for sensitive vegetation in portions of northern coastal
California and the central California valleys.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php