Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 28 2023 - 00Z Thu Nov 30 2023

...Active lake-effect snowfall downwind of the Great Lakes will continue
into Tuesday, producing locally heavy snowfall amounts...

...Below average temperatures from the Great Lakes into the East, and
across the southern tier from southern Texas to Florida,  while a warming
trend for much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley on tap...

...Much of the nation will be dry over the next two days...


A cold weather pattern in place for the beginning of the week across the
eastern half of the nation.  A broad mid to upper level trof centered
across the eastern portions of North America will keep temperatures below
average from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, eastward to along the east coast
and across the southern tier of the nation from southern Texas to Florida.
High temperatures expected to be 10 to 20 degrees below average Tuesday
from the Mid West, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley region into the east coast,
and across the southern tier from southern Texas to Florida,  with the
core of the below average temperatures then shifting to the immediate east
coast on Wednesday from Florida to New England.   The cold air moving
across the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes will keep the current
active lake effect snows going into Tuesday before diminishing from west
to east by early Wednesday.  Locally heavy snows are likely in the favored
lake effect snow belts downwind of the Great Lakes across portions of the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan, western portions of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan, and from far northeast Ohio, far northwest Pennsylvania, far
western New York State and portions of northwest New York State.  The
heaviest totals expected downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario where totals
of 1 to 2 feet are possible.  Lake effect snow warnings are currently in
effect for areas downwind Lake Erie from far northeast Ohio, across far
northwest Pennsylvania into western and northwestern portions of New York
State.  While lake effect snows will be diminishing from west to east on
Tuesday, additional light snows are likely to spread west to east across
the Great Lakes Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of a warm front
moving from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.

While cold temperatures are on tap for large portions of the east and
south, a warming trend will begin across much of the Plains and
Mississippi Valley as the core of the cold air pushes eastward.  High
temperatures are expected to rebound to above average levels across the
Northern and Central Plains on Tuesday, and into the Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday. 

Much of the nation expected to be dry in this weather pattern.  The
exceptions will be downwind of the Great Lakes from the above mentioned
active lake effect snow showers and across coastal California where light
rains are possible beginning Tuesday night across northern California and
spreading south into central California during Wednesday.  Light rains
also possible Wednesday across far South Texas.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php