Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
142 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 29 2023 - 00Z Fri Dec 01 2023

...Areas of heavy lake-effect snowfall downwind of the Great Lakes will
continue through early Wednesday...

...Below average temperatures continue for the East Coast and South with
freeze warnings in effect from the central Gulf Coast and Florida
Panhandle to the South Carolina Lowcountry...

...Unsettled weather to arrive across parts of California and the Pacific
Northwest late Wednesday through Thursday...

...New storm system to bring threat of heavy rain to the Lower Mississippi
Valley by Thursday...

Persistent cold northwest cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes region will
continue to produce areas of heavy lake-effect snowfall downwind of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario going through tonight and early Wednesday.
Additional snowfall accumulations of as much as 4 to 8 inches can be
expected with locally heavier amounts. A few inches of additional snowfall
can also be expected downwind of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. However,
the winds should begin to subside across the Great Lakes region on
Wednesday and this will allow the lake-effect snowfall threat to diminish.

Meanwhile, cold temperatures will be in place across many areas of the
South and much of the East Coast for the remainder of today and into
Wednesday with many areas seeing well below normal temperatures. The cold
air across areas of the South have necessitated the issuance of Freeze
Warnings for tonight across portions of the central Gulf Coast and from
the Florida Panhandle up into the South Carolina Lowcountry. Low
temperatures across these areas will be as cold as the mid to upper 20s,
especially inland from the coast, with temperatures generally in the low
30s along the immediate coast.

Warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions though are expected for
many areas of the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley on Wednesday and
Thursday as an airmass of Pacific origin advances east out of the
Intermountain West and across the center part of the country. This will
facilitate above normal temperatures with highs reaching into the 40s and
50s. By late Thursday, multiple cold fronts will be arriving across areas
of the southern Plains, and there will be the development of low pressure
near the Red River Valley of the South which will begin to tap Gulf of
Mexico moisture. This storm system will set the stage for developing areas
of showers and thunderstorms across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Some of the thunderstorms near the northwest Gulf Coast may be severe
later on Thursday, and the Storm Prediction Center has depicted areas of
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana in a Slight Risk of severe weather
with concerns for a few tornadoes. Locally a few inches of rain will be
possible too, and while most of the rain should be beneficial in nature,
some isolated urban flooding concerns cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere, unsettled weather with some light to moderate rainfall can be
expected to arrive across coastal areas of California beginning on
Wednesday as a weak area of low pressure offshore approaches the region
and brings some Pacific moisture inland. Some of this moisture and energy
will move into the Four Corners region on Thursday. More widespread
inclement weather will also be arriving across the Pacific Northwest on
Thursday as a series of Pacific cold fronts and associated axis of
stronger Pacific moisture transport begins to arrive. This will bring
areas heavy rain to the coastal ranges and heavy snow to the Cascades.

Orrison

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php