Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EST Thu Dec 07 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Dec 07 2023 - 12Z Sat Dec 09 2023

...Excessive Rainfall threat winding down across the Pacific Northwest for
now...

...Cold, unsettled weather to shift into the Intermountain West and Plains
through this weekend...

...Well above average and potentially record-breaking warmth forecast
across the central United States over the next few days...

After a prolific series of atmospheric rivers produced over 9 inches of
rainfall atop coastal Washington and Oregon, a brief reprieve from the
fire hose is expected to set in today across the Pacific Northwest as an
amplifying upper-level pattern briefly cuts off much of the moist Pacific
flow into the Northwest. Even so, a lingering frontal system off the coast
will ensure light to locally moderate rainfall and elevation snow remains
in the forecast today across the Pacific Northwest. Fortunately, no
excessive rainfall is anticipated with today's activity, and all of the
Flood Warnings and Watches in the region are set to expire by early
Thursday afternoon at the latest. As the system spreads east, an influx of
colder continental air the into the Intermountain West will result in
plummeting snow levels and locally heavy mountain snowfall beginning today
atop portions of the Cascades, Northern Rockies, and Sierra Madre, where
scattered Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. Portions of the
Northern-High Plains could also see moderately impactful winter weather
beginning later today into tomorrow, owing primarily to blowing snowfall
(with 1-3 inches expected) behind a deepening low-pressure center lifting
out of the Canadian Rockies. As this system lifts into the Central U.S,
expect below average temperatures to settle in west of the Continental
Divide as the low pressure and strong cold front track south and east.


Ahead of the sweeping cold front, a vast portion of the Heartland will
start warmer and drier through Friday. In fact, daily highs are still
expected to climb into the 60s across South Dakota with 70s across Kansas,
which is around 20 to 30 degrees above average when compared to early
December climatology. The warmest day likely remains today, where several
daily high temperature records could be broken throughout the Great Plains
and Upper Midwest. However, gusty winds and unsettled weather are set to
return as the cold air sweeps down the Plains, with moderate to locally
heavy snow possible across the mountainous terrain of the Rockies, and
strong westerly winds also forecast across parts of the High Plains. As
the front sweeps even further east, SPC is also monitoring an area of
possible severe weather this Saturday across the Lower MS Valley as
unstable Gulf of Mexico air returns north ahead of the cold front.

Asherman/Campbell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php