Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Dec 11 2023 - 00Z Wed Dec 13 2023

...Snow over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region and
Northern/Central Rockies and heavy snow over parts of the higher
elevations of New York State/Northern New England...

...There is a Moderate to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
New England into Monday evening...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic and a second area over parts of the Eastern Gulf
Coast...

A front extending from Eastern Canada to the Eastern Gulf Coast will
slowly move off the Eastern Seaboard by Monday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, with some thunderstorms becoming severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and a second area over the Eastern Gulf
Coast through Sunday night. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a
few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will pool along the boundary on
Sunday, producing heavy rain over parts of the Northeast. Therefore, the
WPC issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over New England through
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of
flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
front over parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of
the Eastern Gulf Coast through Sunday night. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Also, on Sunday, as cold air moves in behind the front, heavy snow will
develop over parts of the higher elevations of New York State and Northern
New England from Sunday evening into Monday. Snow will also develop over
parts of the Central Appalachians, and the rain may change over to snow
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic before the precipitation ends.

On Monday, as the associated area of low pressure lingers over the
Northeast, heavy rain will develop over parts of Maine. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England from Monday into Monday evening.

The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
Also, on Monday, lake-effect snow will develop downwind of the Great Lakes
over parts of the Northeast. Further, lake-effect snow will develop over
parts of the Great Lakes from Sunday into Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will
dissipate by late Monday morning. The system will produce rain and
high-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest through late
Monday afternoon. The storm will produce snow over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region and the Northern/Central Rockies.

On Monday, light snow will linger over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains.

Moreover, on Monday, high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley moves
eastward to the Southeast by Tuesday evening. On the west side of the
high, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will start to stream
northward over the Southern Plains, producing light rain over parts of the
Western Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php