Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Dec 12 2023 - 12Z Thu Dec 14 2023

...Lake effect snow downwind of Great Lakes beginning today...

...Heavy Snow potential across parts of the Southern Rockies/High Plains...


Northwesterly flow on the backside of a cold front will produce snow
downwind of the Great Lakes beginning today. Snow will begin over eastern
portions of Michigan's Upper Peninsula this morning as the cold front
moves through the Upper Great Lakes. What starts out as a wintry mix
downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario early this evening will quickly switch
over to all snow overnight as the cold front sweeps through the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast. Light to moderate snow is likely with about 3-6
inches of snow possible for areas downwind of Lake Ontario by Thursday
morning, which is when conditions are expected to improve.

Elsewhere, an area of low pressure is expected to develop beneath an
amplifying upper level pattern and produce moderate to heavy snow across
portions of the Southern Rockies/High Plains tonight through Wednesday.
Between 6-12 inches of snow are possible over portions of southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico. There's still some uncertainty with the
track of this system and snow levels, with some accumulating snow possible
as low as 5,500 feet and as high as 7,500 feet. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected over western Texas where warm moist southerly flow gets into
the region.

Temperatures will fall 15-25 degrees below average beneath the digging
upper trough over the Central/Southern High Plains on Wednesday and
Thursday. A downstream ridge will support above average temperatures from
the Northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest beginning Wednesday. A
quasi-stationary front will meander into southern Florida where it'll
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php