Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 14 2023 - 00Z Sat Dec 16 2023

...Moderate to heavy snow and below average temperatures likely over
portions of the Southern Rockies/High Plains through early Friday
morning...

...Excessive Rainfall concerns over southeastern Florida for the next few
days...

...Northern tier and West warm up...


A closed upper low is providing support for the ongoing winter storm
impacting parts of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Southeasterly winds are advecting in a moist airmass that is interacting
with a weak surface front and terrain to produce moderate to heavy snow
showers in the higher elevations. The WPC Winter Storm Severity Index
indicates that moderate to major impacts will be possible in parts of
southern Colorado and northern New Mexico with considerable disruptions to
daily life and dangerous travel conditions through Friday morning. Winter
Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across the
region. Further east in the High Plains, slightly warmer conditions
increase uncertainty in the precipitation type. Precipitation will most
likely fall as rain or wintry mixed precipitation.

In addition to impactful winter weather, this weather pattern will produce
widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms across Texas and southern New
Mexico today. A developing low pressure system in the Southwest will push
east through the end of the week, expanding rain and thunderstorm chances
across the southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by this
weekend. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash flooding
concerns in the southern Plains Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms and
flooding will also be a concern in Florida thanks to a lingering frontal
boundary that will remain nearly stationary over South Florida through
Friday. Isolated to Scattered flash flooding will be possible, especially
in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. The front will lift north
over the weekend as a low pressure system forms over the Gulf and
approaches the Florida peninsula from the southwest.

Elsewhere, conditions will be mainly dry through Thursday with the
exception of some lighter precipitation in the coastal Pacific Northwest.
An approaching Pacific frontal system will bring rainfall to lower
elevations and mixed precipitation and snow to the mountains. By Friday,
precipitation chances will increase near the Great Lakes as a cold front
sinks south from Canada. 

Temperatures will be above average across the West and the northern tier
of the nation through at least this weekend. Highs in parts of the Midwest
will likely reach 10-20 degrees above normal into the upper 40s and lower
50s. Below normal temperatures will linger across the southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains through Friday due to expected precipitation and
cloud cover.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php