Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 15 2023 - 00Z Sun Dec 17 2023

...Increasing Excessive Rainfall concerns over Florida...


A low pressure system beneath a digging upper trough will continue to
produce mainly light snow across western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas
panhandles with generally an additional inch or two possible. Ahead of
this system, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread
across Texas and Oklahoma with a threat for mainly isolated flash flooding
into Friday. This system should begin to tap Gulf of Mexico moisture to
produce additional showers and storms across the western and central Gulf
Coast into the weekend. High temperatures will be below average across the
Central/Southern High Plains today and tomorrow due to cloud cover and
rain showers.

Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary front draped across southern Florida will
continue to be the focus for showers and thunderstorms throughout the
region on Friday. A developing low pressure system out of the southeast
Gulf of Mexico will bring anomalous moisture across Florida with a
widespread heavy rainfall event appearing more likely beginning Saturday
and lasting into the medium range period. Given prior heavy rain across
the Sunshine state, there will be an elevated threat for flash flooding
across much of the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a wavy front across the northern tier will bring some scattered
showers across the Upper Midwest, with light snow across the Great Lakes.
Into the weekend, much of the country will have above normal temperatures,
with the exception of the Gulf Coast and Florida as a couple of dynamic
systems move through.

Santorelli/Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php