Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 15 2023 - 12Z Sun Dec 17 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern
Georgia and Florida on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Florida on
Saturday...

...Light snow over parts of the Midwest...

A wave of low pressure over Texas will slowly move northeastward to the
Upper Great Lakes by Sunday. The system will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Friday and into the
Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Light rain will develop over parts
of the Central Plains, likewise on Friday, moving into the Middle
Mississippi Valley by Saturday.

Further, a second wave of low pressure over the Northern Plains will
slowly move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday. The system will
produce light rain and snow over parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday,
with a few isolated pockets of rain/freezing rain. The rain and snow will
move into the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday.

Meanwhile, easterly flow off the Atlantic will create light rain along the
east coast of Florida on Friday. A third wave of low pressure developing
along a stationary front over the Gulf of Mexico will move onshore over
the west coast of Florida on Saturday afternoon. The low pressure will aid
in streaming moisture over parts of Florida on Saturday into Sunday. The
moisture will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of southern Georgia and Florida from
Saturday into Sunday morning.

The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms are intense enough to produce
severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday into
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a
minimal threat of hail.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php