Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Dec 16 2023 - 12Z Mon Dec 18 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern
Georgia and Florida on Saturday and over the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Florida on
Saturday and parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday...

...Lake-enhanced snow over parts of the western portion of the UP of
Michigan Sunday night into Monday...

A developing area of low pressure over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will
rapidly deepen Saturday night into Monday. The storm will move onshore
over the west coast of Florida overnight Saturday, moving northeastward to
South Carolina by Sunday evening and then to the Delaware Coast by Monday.
The major system will start to produce showers and thunderstorms over
Florida, with heavy rain on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern Georgia and
Florida through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

In addition, the storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
the Florida Peninsula. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Florida Peninsula through Sunday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a minimal
threat of hail.

On Sunday, the storm will move from northeast Florida to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast by Monday. The threat of excessive rainfall moves northward over the
Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of southeastern Pennsylvania/Delaware to eastern South
Carolina from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Likewise, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves northward to the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of southeastern North Carolina and
northeastern Southern Carolina from Sunday through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

Meanwhile, low pressure and associated front over the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley will move into the Great Lakes and dissipate by Sunday
afternoon. The system will produce rain from the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley and showers and
thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast on Saturday. Moreover, a streak
of light snow will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Cold high pressure will move south out of Western Canada on Sunday, moving
to the Northern/Central Plains by Monday. The cold air will produce light
to moderate snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and moderate
to heavy snow over the western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
from Sunday evening into Monday.

Furthermore, moisture ahead of a front over the Eastern Pacific will move
over parts of the West Coast, creating light rain over parts of California
and Oregon Sunday evening into Monday.


Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php