Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Dec 17 2023 - 12Z Tue Dec 19 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into New England on Sunday and over Northern New England on
Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Sunday...

...Lake-effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes and upslope snow over
parts of the Northern/Central through Tuesday...

A strong storm is moving onshore over the northeastern portion of the Gulf
Coast of Florida. The area of low pressure will deepen rapidly while
moving northeastward to the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday evening.
The major system will start to produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast northward to New England.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

In addition, the storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern North Carolina and the
eastern Southern Carolina Coast through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

On Monday the storm will move from northward into Eastern Canada by Monday
evening. The threat of excessive rainfall moves northward in Northern New
England. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of Northern New England from Monday through Tuesday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on Monday. There is
a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of New England from
Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of hail and tornadoes.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will
produce light to moderate snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
and moderate to heavy snow over the western portion of the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan from Sunday evening into Monday. In addition, lake-effect snow
will develop downwind of the Great Lakes and upslope snow over parts of
the Northern/Central Appalachians on Monday into Tuesday. The heaviest
snow will be over parts of the Central Appalachians.

Furthermore, a front moving onshore over the West Coast on Monday will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and California Coast on
Monday into Tuesday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php