Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Dec 25 2023 - 00Z Wed Dec 27 2023

...Significant winter storm will "let it snow, let it snow, let it snow"
over portions of the Central Plains on Christmas where blizzard conditions
and hazardous travel are anticipated; treacherous ice accumulations
expected in the eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota...

...Passing showers to make for a wet Christmas and Boxing Day in the
Southeast; new Pacific storm system to introduce more rain and mountains
snow over the Pacific Northwest Christmas night into Tuesday...

...Unusually mild temperatures along and east of the Mississippi River
with some record breaking warmth possible in the Midwest and Great Lakes...

The big weather story this Christmas Eve is a strengthening low pressure
system tonight becoming a significant winter storm on Christmas Day and
into Tuesday across portions of the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. As
an upper level low deepens over the Central Plains tonight, a conveyor
belt of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will stretch from the central Gulf
Coast to the Central Plains. WPC maintains a pair of Slight Risks for
Excessive Rainfall; one along the central Gulf Coast and another that
extends from the Arkansas River Valley on north to the Kansas City metro
area. Farther north, precipitation overrunning a cold front supplying the
northern and central High Plains with subfreezing temperatures will allow
snow to fall from central Kansas on northward to northern Minnesota.
Motorists and reindeer should make sure that their headlights and noses
are lit up brightly in areas where snow and rain are expected Christmas
Eve.

By Christmas morning, the closed upper low in the Central Plains will
foster a favorable environment for surface low pressure to quickly
strengthen over Iowa. On the western flank of the storm, heavy snow will
envelope much of northern Kansas, central Nebraska, and central South
Dakota. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions are expected for some areas,
prompting the issuance of Blizzard Warnings for central Nebraska and
southern South Dakota. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >6
inches of snow in these areas. While this would mean a White Christmas for
some, the heavy snowfall rates and reduced visibilities due to blowing
snow will make for hazardous to even possible impossible travel conditions
through Christmas night. From the Red River Valley of the North to
northern Minnesota, significant icing is a growing concern. WPC
probabilities now show moderate chances (40-60%) for ice accumulations
>0.25" in southeast North Dakota. Treacherous travel conditions due to ice
are likely Christmas Day and into Tuesday morning from the eastern Dakotas
to northern Minnesota and the Minnesota Arrowhead. In the Southeast, a
passing cold front funneling Gulf of Mexico moisture northward will spawn
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. WPC does have a Marginal Risk
for Excessive Rainfall in the southern Appalachians for Christmas Day.

By Tuesday, the winter storm will gradually weaken but still produce a
combination of heavy snow and blowing snow in the central High Plains. The
Red River Valley of the North and northern Minnesota will contend with an
icy wintry mix throughout the day. Farther east, the plume of Gulf of
Mexico moisture will work its way into the Mid-Atlantic. WPC issued a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall from the Carolina Coast on north into
the Central Appalachians. In the West, a new potent Pacific storm system
will deliver rounds of heavy coastal/valley rain and wintry precipitation
to the Cascades Monday night and into Tuesday morning. A wintry mix in the
Columbia River Valley and Basin may lead to hazardous travel conditions on
Tuesday.

Temperature-wise, it will not be feeling a lot like Christmas from the
Upper Mississippi Valley on east to the Great Lakes and East Coast. On the
heels of a Saturday and Christmas Eve that sported numerous record warm
min and max temps in the Upper Midwest, by Christmas Day, more unusually
mild temps are expected in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where high
temps could range between 15-25 degrees above normal. The East Coast will
not witness quite the anomalous warmth that the Midwest and Great Lakes
will, but daily average temps will still be rather mild and could range
between 10-15 degrees above normal in parts of the Northeast. Tuesday
continues to be exceptionally mild in the Great Lakes and along the East
Coast with more record breaking warm min temperatures scattered throughout
the Great Lakes. In contrast, the central/southern Plains and
central/southern Rockies will be the coolest versus normal thanks to a
recent cold frontal passage injecting the region with an air-mass that
feels a lot more like Christmas than compared to their neighbors on the
East and West Coasts.


Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php