Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024

...Pacific system to bring coastal/lower elevation rain and mountain snows
to California and the Pacific Northwest Tuesday, spreading into the Great
Basin and Southwest Wednesday...

...Moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected with showers and
thunderstorms for portions of Texas and the Gulf Coast...

...Lake-effect snows downwind from the Great Lakes over the next couple of
days...

After a mostly quiet start to the new year, the weather pattern will get
more active across multiple areas of the country as we start the shortened
work week. A Pacific storm system approaching the West Coast Tuesday
morning will bring moderate to locally heavy rain to coastal and lower
elevations of the Pacific Northwest and California, as well as some
potentially heavy snow for higher mountain elevations. The heaviest
rainfall is most likely along the northern California coast where totals
above an inch will be possible. In the mountains, higher elevations of the
Northern Coastal Ranges, Klamath Mountains, and the Sierra will see
moderate to locally heavy snow with totals of 6-12", locally higher.
Precipitation chances will shift south and eastward Wednesday into
southern California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. Rain is forecast
for coastal southern California and the Desert Southwest with a wintry mix
for lower elevation valleys in the Great Basin, though little to no snow
accumulations are anticipated. Higher elevations in the mountains will
likely see at least a few inches of snow, including for those in southern
California and the greater Los Angeles area and into the Southwest.

To the east, an upper-level shortwave will help to induce a surface low
pressure system along a frontal boundary in the Gulf, drawing Gulf
moisture northward into Texas and along the Gulf Coast and leading to
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some moderate to
locally heavy rainfall will be possible for portions of central and
eastern Texas beginning Tuesday afternoon, spreading eastward through the
Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and into the Southeast Wednesday.
The highest chances for heavier rainfall will be focused along the Gulf
Coast.

A frontal wave dropping southward from Canada and predominantly
northwesterly wind flow will lead to some lake-enhanced and lake-effect
snow showers downwind from the Great Lakes over the next couple of days.
Accumulations of a few inches are expected for favorable regions
south/east of Lakes Superior and Michigan Tuesday, shifting to areas east
of Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday. Some locally heavier totals above 6"
could be seen east of Lakes Erie and Ontario depending upon the intensity
and longevity of the snowbands. 

Elsewhere, conditions will be mostly dry. Forecast high temperatures will
generally be near or above early January averages along the northern tier
of the country from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, as well as for the Interior West, Central Plains, and
Middle Mississippi Valley. Conditions will remain below average and a bit
chilly for Texas into the Southeast following a recent frontal passage.
Temperatures will also fall below average Wednesday for California and
portions of the Great Basin/Desert Southwest as the Pacific system
continues inland. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php