Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024

...Showers and thunderstorms spread eastward from the central Gulf Coast
Wednesday into Florida and portions of the Southeast Wednesday night...

...Lake-effect snow showers forecast downwind from the Great Lakes...

...Lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation accumulating snowfall
continues in California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest/Four Corners
Region Wednesday, with snow shifting into the Central/Southern High Plains
Thursday...

...Precipitation chances remain in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest
as a couple system pass through...

An active weather pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future as
a series of systems follow an energetic jet stream eastward from the West
Coast through the South. Gulf moisture overrunning a frontal boundary with
a system currently moving along the central Gulf Coast will continue to
encourage showers and thunderstorms with moderate to locally heavy
rainfall Wednesday. Storm chances will shift eastward with the system into
Florida and northeastward along the Atlantic coast through Georgia and the
Carolinas by Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. To the
north, a frontal wave dropping through the Great Lakes with accompanying
northern and westerly cyclonic flow will encourage lake-effect snow
showers. Favorable locations south and east of Lakes Superior and Michigan
and east of Lakes Erie and Ontario will generally see around 1-4" of
accumulation, with some locally higher amounts possible, particularly
downwind of Lake Ontario with some more intense snow bands. The snow will
taper off by early Thursday.

Lower elevation/coastal rain, a wintry mix for interior valleys, and
higher elevation snow will continue across California, the Great Basin,
and the Southwest/Four Corners region Wednesday as a storm system passes
through the region. The focus for moderate to locally heavy snowfall will
shift from portions of California earlier Wednesday into the Great Basin
and Southwest/Four Corners region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Additional accumulations of at least a few inches are expected for the
northern coastal ranges, Klamath mountains, and Sierra in northern/central
California, as well as for higher elevations in the mountains of southern
California, generally around the greater Los Angeles area. Some heavier
totals of 5-10"+ will be possible across portions of the central Great
Basin in Nevada, with 4-6" into the Four Corners region. Any accumulations
for interior lower elevation/valley locations should remain very light.
High surf will once again be a concern along coastal California. The
system will continue eastward Thursday, tapping into Gulf moisture as
southerly flow increases ahead of the system over the Southern Plains.
Snow is expected for portions of the Central/Southern High Plains, with a
growing concern for at least a few inches of accumulating snowfall in
northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, and western portions of
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
pick up late Thursday/early Friday for portions of eastern Texas into
southern Oklahoma, with a wintry mix in the transition zone across
northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

Precipitation chances will also continue in the Pacific Northwest as the
initial system departs Wednesday and a second Pacific system approaches by
early Thursday. Moderate rain showers are likely for lower
elevation/coastal locations with accumulating snowfall for higher
elevations of the Cascades. Some precipitation will also spread into
interior locations of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies, with
a wintry mix for lower elevations and a few inches of snow possible for
higher elevations in the area mountains.

High temperatures will generally be near to above average along the
northern tier of the country. Highs from the Northern Plains eastward
through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes will be in the 20s and
30s, with 30s and 40s in New England. Highs in the 30s and 40s will also
be common from the Central Plains eastward through the Midwest, Ohio
Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Areas to the south will be running
below average as the active storm track with frontal passages and
precipitation chances keeps temperatures down. Many chilly highs in the
40s are expected for the Southeast Wednesday before conditions moderate a
bit Thursday, with highs into the 50s. The Southern Plains will mostly be
in the 50s while the Desert Southwest and southern California will be in
the 50s and 60s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php