Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024

...Snow expected for portions of the Four Corners region and adjacent High
Plains Thursday...

...Showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy rainfall forecast
from Texas late Thursday into the Southeast Friday with storm system
traversing the Gulf Coast...

...Series of Pacific storm systems will keep low-elevation/coastal rain,
interior wintry mix, and high elevation mountain snow in the forecast for
the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin...

An active weather pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable futures as
a series of systems follow an energetic jet stream eastward from the West
Coast through the South and up the East Coast. An upper-level
trough/surface low pressure system currently passing through the Four
Corners region Thursday morning will move eastward towards the Southern
Plains through the day, encouraging moist Gulf return flow northward ahead
of the system which will contribute to areas of snow and a wintry mix in
the cooler air along and to the north of the surface low track. Moderate
to heavy snow will continue for higher elevations of the San Juan and
Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado/northern New Mexico, with
accumulations of around 5-10", locally higher, anticipated. Snowfall will
also begin for lower elevations east of the mountains along the Central
and Southern High Plains by Thursday afternoon. Snowfall totals generally
between 2-4" are expected for portions of northeastern New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas, and the western Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Adjacent areas of Kansas and northern Oklahoma will
likely see a wintry mix of rain and some snow, with some light
accumulations possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin in the warm air southeast of the low
track across Texas and into southern Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night. As the upper-level trough approaches the western Gulf
of Mexico, a second area of low pressure will develop, organizing and
strengthening into the primary surface low pressure/frontal system and
traversing eastward just to the south of the Gulf Coast. Further enhanced
southerly, moist flow overrunning a frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast
will lead to more widespread shower and thunderstorms producing moderate
to locally heavy rainfall, from the western Gulf overnight Thursday and
along the central Gulf Coast and into the Southeast Friday. Some isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible. The low pressure system will
continue northeastward up the East Coast with rainfall and winter
weather-related impacts expected through the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and
New England this weekend just beyond the current forecast period. Some
light freezing rain accumulations may begin as early as Saturday morning
along and just to the east of the southern Appalachians from northeast
Georgia through the Carolinas and into southwestern Virginia where warm,
moist air begins to override an area of shallow cold air damming along the
mountains.

Upstream over the West, a Pacific storm system moving onshore the Pacific
Northwest Thursday morning will bring lower elevation/coastal rain, high
elevation mountain snow, and a wintry mix to interior valley locations
through the day. Precipitation will spread inland across portions of the
Great Basin and Northern Rockies as well. A second system will quickly
follow on the heels of the first late in the day Friday, bringing
additional precipitation chances and the potential for even heavier
snowfall in the Cascades. Any snow accumulations at lower elevations
should be limited, but the mountain ranges in the Great Basin and Northern
Rockies as well as southern portions of the Cascades can expect to see
between 4-8", locally a foot, over the next couple of days. The northern
Cascades and Olympic Mountains could see as much as 1-2 feet.

Elsewhere, some light snow showers are possible for the Interior Northeast
Thursday following a frontal passage. Enough moisture will be in place for
some light to moderate snow showers with a clipper-like low pressure
system dropping southeastward from Canada into the Northern Plains and the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Friday afternoon. High temperatures continue to
be running a bit below average from California eastward along the southern
half of the county as the active storm pattern and repeated frontal
passages keep temperatures down. Although we are fully into Winter,
portions of the Southeast/Florida and Desert Southwest will remain
relatively cool by local standards with highs generally in the 50s. In
contrast, highs will be above average along the northern tier of the
country generally away from the active weather.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php