Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EST Mon Jan 08 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 09 2024 - 00Z Thu Jan 11 2024

...A Major Storm will produce widespread, significant weather impacts of
every variety across large portions of the Central and Southern Plains,
Midwest, South and Eastern U.S today through mid-week...

...A Major Winter Storm will bring several feet of snow and blizzard
conditions to the Washington and Oregon Cascades through Tuesday...

A pair of very deep, dynamic mid-latitude cyclones will have some weather
impacts to nearly all portions of the U.S. with all but one U.S. state
(North Dakota) not having a weather warning, watch or advisory in effect
at this time.  Hazards ranging from winter impacts of significant
snowfall, including blizzard conditions, freezing rain and very high
winds, inducing low temperatures and accompanying wind chills; as well as,
severe weather, including potentially significant tornadoes, severe winds
and some hail; additionally, widespread and potentially significant river
and flash flooding.  Please keep weather aware over the next few days,
especially when traveling taking necessary precautions prior to leaving,
checking weather information regularly and heeding any warnings in effect.


Central/Southern Plains through Eastern U.S...
Currently, the a strong surface cyclone continues to rapidly deepen across
the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and is expected to continue to deepen as
it crosses the Ozarks of Missouri tomorrow (Tuesday) before bottoming out
in pressure across the Lower Great Lakes early Wednesday.  Given the depth
of the low, very strong winds are expected throughout the region with
nearly the entire southern U.S, Appalachians into the northeast hoisting
High Wind Advisories with spots already reaching warning criteria, in and
near the surface low.  The strong winds have also brought above average
temperatures and moisture up from the Western Gulf along/ahead of the
eastward moving cold front currently in central TX.  This will make for a
very unstable day across the Gulf Coast region where, severe weather is
expected.   The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has and Enhanced Risk (3 of
5) of Severe Weather from near Houston across to east of Panama City,
indicating severe weather capable of severe winds, some hail and tornadoes
are possible, including some that may be considered strong/significant.  
These storms will also have very high rainfall rates that may induce flash
flooding locally; as such, the Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate
Risk (3 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for potions of southeast Louisiana,
southern Mississippi and far southwest Alabama.  Both risk areas have
surrounding Slight and Marginal Risks that extend further north in the
Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Southeast today.  Behind the cold
front, very dry air/low relative humidity and strong
westerly/northwesterly winds have resulted in area of Elevated Fire Risk
(1 of 3) from (SPC) across portions of southwest Texas into Deep South
Texas, which also matches a Red Flag Warning across this area for today as
well.

North of this low, very strong north and northeasterly winds and heavy
snows have resulted in portions of northeast New Mexico, eastern Colorado,
western Kansas and portions of southwest Nebraska and Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to be under a Blizzard Warning currently. Snowfall totals of 8"
to 12" are expected from New Mexico across northwest Kansas, eastern
Nebraska into Iowa today and tomorrow, with some localized spots of 15" in
spots, especially overnight Monday into Tuesday.  A winter storm warning
expands downstream of the Blizzard Warning into Iowa, southern Wisconsin
and northwest Illinois and a Winter Storm Watch into the northern L.P. of
Michigan. As the precipiation starts later tonight into Tuesday, some
light but impactful freezing rain may occur in highest portions of the
Appalachian mountains from western New York, to western North Carolina.

Into Tuesday, the low has shifted into the Great Lakes and warm air has
surged northward across the eastern U.S. as a warm front surges from the
Carolina coast through the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England by early
Wednesday morning, Very strong onshore winds will result in Gale warnings
and coastal flooding, but unstable air will result in a similar Enhanced
Risk of severe weather across Coastal Plains of the Carolinas, southern
Georgia, and northern Florida, with tornadoes (possibly strong), severe
winds and hail.  Faster storms may limit rainfall totals but rates will
continue to be high for localized flash flooding across this region, but
deeper pull of moisture off the Eastern Gulf and the return moisture from
the western Atlantic will shift risk of Excessive Rainfall northward with
a Moderate Risk in the eastern foothills of Upstate South Carolina and
western North Carolina, as well as a large portion of the urban I-95
corridor of northern Virginal, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey into
southeast New York, and Connecticut for through Wednesday morning. High
soil moisture content, dormant ground conditions and even moderately high
(above normal) rain-rates for this time of year may result in hazardous
flooding with rapid rises possible, especially in locations with any snow
remaining on the ground.  Record or near record warm overnight lows in the
upper 40s are possible through the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday morning. 
Additional snow is likely to be limited to highest terrain of Adirondacks,
Green, White and Blue Ranges by Wednesday morning with best chance of
heavy/wet snow up to 6-9" into the terrain in Maine, where winter storm
watches have been hoisted.  The potential for areas of power outages are
becoming likely given the high winds and precipitation totals.


Western U.S....
While a major storm is brewing east, an equally deep/strong surface
cyclone approaches the Northwest Coast as well.  Currently a warm front is
on the doorstep of Washington and Oregon, with light rainfall and higher
elevation flurries already overrunning the area.   After the warm front
passage, strong winds with modest moisture will surge ashore rising levels
over 5000' but as the low deepens, the cold front will quickly press
through and crash snow levels to between 1500-2500' early Tuesday.  Strong
winds and high level snows will lead to considerate impacts to most of the
mountain passes in the Cascades eventually spreading into the Northern
Rockies of Idaho and western Montana.  Strong winds with blowing snows and
high snow rates are likely to result in Blizzard conditions with much of
the Cascade, Olympic Ranges.  Well over a foot of snow is possible in
these locations, with Major impacts eventually expected across the
Northern Rockies as well into Tuesday.  Very cold air is expected behind
the front by Tuesday and eventually Wednesday as the cold front surges
through the northern Rockies, by Wednesday temperatures will be 10-25
degrees below normal for large portions of the West including further
south into California, Utah, Arizona.

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php