Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EST Tue Jan 09 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 10 2024 - 00Z Fri Jan 12 2024

...Major storm system will hammer the Eastern U.S. with widespread heavy
rain, strong winds, and severe thunderstorms tonight into early
Wednesday...

...Unsettled weather will continue in the West while dangerously cold
temperatures plunge into the Central U.S...

A vigorous upper level trough digging into the Central and Eastern U.S.
has spawned a strong surface cyclone that will continue to impact the
eastern third of the nation through early Wednesday. Widespread heavy
rainfall will likely lead to significant river and flash flooding from the
western Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and scattered to
numerous flash floods will be possible. The highest flash flood chances
are over the far western Carolinas and from northern/central Virginia
through southern New York and into Connecticut to Rhode Island where there
is a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall. The tight pressure gradient
accompanying this system will also produce an expansive area of high
winds, and there are widespread Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings in
effect from the middle/lower Mississippi to the Southeast and up the East
Coast. Strong winds with gusts in excess of 55 mph are likely to cause
numerous power outages and moderate to major coastal flooding in the
Mid-Atlantic and New England. Severe thunderstorms will also be a hazard
for the Southeast with a powerful mid-level jet in place ahead of the cold
front. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this region with an
Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight, and storm hazards
may include tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe wind gusts, and
isolated hail.

Additionally, wintry precipitation on the northern and western sides of
the system will create hazardous conditions for parts of the Midwest and
Great Lakes. Heavy snow bands with rates of 1-2 inches per hour will shift
from the Upper Midwest this afternoon into the Great Lakes tonight. These
snow rates will be accompanied by gusty winds reaching 30-40 mph, making
for dangerous travel due to low visibility and snow covered roads. An
additional 4-8 inches of storm-total snowfall is possible from the western
shores of Lake Michigan to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Heavy/wet snow
will move across the high terrain of  the interior Northeast tonight into
Wednesday. This snow will cling to trees and power lines, which when
combined with gusty winds potentially exceeding 55 mph, could result in
power outages and scattered tree damage.

Conditions will gradually improve on Wednesday as the system moves out,
although precipitation and strong winds will linger into the afternoon for
the Northeast. A weaker low pressure system will approach the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region on Wednesday into Thursday morning, but it
will not have much moisture to work with, so mainly light snow is expected
with that event.

Meanwhile, conditions will be deteriorating in the West as a series of
frontal systems push southeast across the region. Blizzard conditions will
continue through Wednesday morning in the Northwest, bringing snow totals
to several feet in the higher elevations of the Cascades and Olympics with
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Snow levels will fall to 1000-2000 feet on
Wednesday, leading to considerable travel impacts for many mountain
passes. Heavy snow exceeding 12 inches is likely for many of the other
higher elevation mountain ranges of the West, including the Northern
Rockies, Sierra Nevada, and Wasatch. In the Great Basin, snow squalls are
likely through Wednesday. Intense bursts of snow of 1-2 inches per hour
and wind gusts over 50 MPH will lead to rapid changes in visibility,
occasional whiteouts, and pose significant danger to motorists. The storm
will emerge into the Plains by Thursday and strengthen. A swath of heavy
snow is likely somewhere in the Plains and Midwest by Friday and Saturday.
Blowing snow will also be possible in strong winds.

Colder temperatures will plunge into the Central U.S. in the wake of a
cold frontal passage this week, initially impacting the northern Rockies
and northern Plains on Wednesday and expanding into the central Plains by
Thursday. High temperatures will likely stay in the negative digits or
only reach the single digits in the northern Rockies and northern Plains
Thursday and Friday while the central Plains only reach the teens. Wind
chills will be even lower, reaching as low as 25-35 below zero in parts of
Montana where Wind Chill Advisories are already in effect for Wednesday
and Thursday. Frostbite and hypothermia will be a concern if precautions
are not taken, and dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.


Dolan



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php