Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 318 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 12 2024 - 12Z Sun Jan 14 2024 ...Major winter storm to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the Midwest/Great Lakes as well as more heavy rain, coastal flooding, and severe weather for the Southeast/East Coast... ...Dangerously cold Arctic Air spreads southward through the Heartland heading into the weekend... ...Moderate to heavy snowfall for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Northern Rockies, including snowfall for lower elevations... Our weather pattern continues to be extremely active through the weekend under the influence of an energetic jet stream with a pair of storm systems traversing the country. The first of these storms is located over the Southern Plains, and is rapidly deepening as it tracks to the northeast into the Midwest. Ahead of a series of cold fronts associated with this system, widespread showers and thunderstorms are spreading into the Mississippi Valley with Gulf moisture streaming northward, where the Storm Prediction Center continues to closely monitor this activity for an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) overnight for a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a strong tornado focused over the ArkLaTex region. An additional Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place beginning this morning over portions of the central Gulf Coast states where significant damaging wind gusts are the foremost concern, although threat for a few tornadoes is present. Further to the northeast, the poleward advance of Gulf Moisture will lead to yet another round of heavy rain stretching northward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. While rainfall amounts between 1-2" will likely be less than the previous event this week, saturated ground conditions as well as higher than normal stream/river levels due to snowmelt could lead to scattered flash flooding flooding, particularly for urban areas, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect. In addition to the severe weather and heavy rain, very gusty winds as well as coastal flooding, particularly from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, will once again be a concern. Meanwhile, impacts continue within the colder air to the northwest of the system track as a swath of moderate to heavy snow is forecast to spread from the Missouri Valley towards the Great Lakes today. Through Saturday night, over a foot of snowfall is likely across portions of Wisconsin and Michigan, which will combine with gusty winds upwards of 40 to 50 mph to produce blizzard conditions and near impossible travel. Even as the system pulls away, continued cold and gusty northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes will also lead to blowing lake-effect snow in favorable locations downwind of the Great Lakes, including into the Lower Great Lakes by Saturday. Additional moderate to locally heavy snowfall is also expected Saturday into the Interior Northeast/northern New England. The storms and winter weather are yet only the first part of the story as a surge of Arctic air into the Heartland in the storm system's wake. Bitterly cold temperatures in the Northern Plains will spill into the Central Plains today, and reach the Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains Saturday, leading to numerous daily record cold temperatures through this weekend. Temperatures will remain below zero for the Northern Plains starting this morning, with highs only into the single digits for the Central Plains by Saturday. Record low temperatures in the -20s, -30s, and even approaching 40 below are forecast for the Northern Plains Saturday morning. The widespread, gusty winds will factor in here as well, leading to dangerously cold wind chills as low as -35 to -50 for parts of the Northern Plains and as low as -15 to -30 into the Central Plains. Wind chills of this nature can lead to frostbite on exposed skin within minutes. Later this weekend into next week, snow is also likely on the periphery of the advancing Arctic air mass from the interior South into the Mid-Atlantic. Upstream over the West, the frigid Arctic air settling in behind the cold front will lower snow levels in time for the arrival of a second storm system along the West Coast, ultimately leading to heavy snowfall and considerable impacts across the West today and tomorrow which includes lower elevation areas including Portland, Boise, and Salt Lake City. Freezing rain is also likely Saturday over western Oregon. In advance of this wintry weather, a swath of Winter Storm Warnings and Watches extend across much of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Asherman/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php