Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 301 PM EST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 00Z Sat Feb 03 2024 - 00Z Mon Feb 05 2024 ...Unsettled weather for the West Friday as heavy snow continues for the Sierra and spreads into the Great Basin and Rockies... ...Widespread thunderstorms shift from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast today through Saturday, with a threat for severe weather and flash flooding... ...Mild, well above average temperatures will persist across central portions of the country this weekend... Mountain snow and a rain/snow mix for lower elevation valleys will continue across the West as an upper-level trough and accompanying surface frontal system will push eastward through the Great Basin and Rockies. A secondary upper-level trough/area of low pressure offshore of the Pacific Northwest will also keep weather unsettled along the West Coast. Heavy higher elevation snow is expected for many of the local mountain ranges across the West including in California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies, which will likely see at least a foot of new snow through Sunday morning. Accumulations is expected to be lighter for most lower elevations, and any snow that mixes in should lead to little to no accumulations. Some heavier showers will be possible along the northern California/southern Oregon coast where thunderstorms are expected. As the system advances further to the east precipitation chances will decrease for California and the Great Basin on Saturday meanwhile the heavy snow across the Northern/Central Rockies will persist. However, the first wave of heavy precipitation associated with another Atmospheric River may begin to impact portions of California as early as Saturday night, and likely by Sunday morning. Warm moist air will advect northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Southern Plains ahead of an approaching upper-level trough/surface frontal system moving through the West Friday. Isolated shower and thunderstorms will become more widespread by tonight. Some severe thunderstorms are possible for central Texas as cooling temperatures aloft with the approaching trough should lead to sufficient CAPE, along with expected strong wind shear, for some more robust updrafts. There is a Slight Risk for severe storms in effect for most of central Texas per SPC with the main threat being large hail. Additionally, these storms are expected to organize into a line that will be capable of producing heavier downpours and an isolated risk of flash flooding. The potential for storms will continue eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday where a developing coastal low may help to locally enhance storm coverage/intensity, leading to a bit higher threat of heavier rain and flash flooding. WPC has a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect along the central Gulf Coast. The progressive nature of the system will bring clearing conditions through the region late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as storm chances increase across the Southeast and Florida. Meanwhile central portions of the country will have an amplified upper-level ridge in place that will maintain above average temperatures for the Plains and the Midwest. Daily maximums will range from the 30s to 40s for the Northeast and the Great Lakes, the 40s and 50s for the Northern Plains and the Ohio Valley, the 50s and 60s for the Central Plains and Carolinas, and the 60s and 70s for the Southern Plains and Southeast. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side of average across much of the West given the upper-level trough, cloudy cover and precipitation. Highs mainly in the 40s for the Great Basin, 50s for the Pacific Northwest and northern California, and 60s for the Desert Southwest and southern California. Campbell/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php