Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 228 PM EST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 04 2024 - 00Z Tue Feb 06 2024 ...Dangerous Flash Flooding likely across Central/Southern California into early next week... ...Heavy Snow will cause extreme impacts over much of the Sierra Nevada on Sunday and Monday... ...Anomalous warmth continues across Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... A highly amplified upper-level pattern will support multiple sensible weather hazards across the CONUS over the next few days. Heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms will spread into central California tonight as a warm front associated with an approaching low pressure system focuses moisture and instability over the area. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for portions of the central California coast from the Bay Area down through Big Sur. Conditions worsen on Sunday as the low pressure system arrives along the California coast. There is a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4) over portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties where the combination of high moisture, instability and lift (cold front) will produce a dangerous Flash Flooding situation. It's strongly recommended that people: heed warnings from emergency management personnel, the local forecast office guidance and avoid driving through flooded roadways. Broader Moderate (level 3/4) and Slight Risk areas will encompass most of the central and southern coast as well as upslope areas of the Sierra Nevada and parts of the Central Valley. This moisture plume will spread east into the Sierra, leading to an extremely impactful heavy snow event over the mountains and actually spilling over into portions of the western Great Basin. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the aforementioned areas where 4-6'+ of snow is probable. High winds will also be a significant issue with whipping rain in the low elevations and blowing snow likely in the Sierra on Sunday. The focus for heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms shift into southern California Sunday night into Monday as the upper low continues to direct energy and moisture into the region beneath a persistently strong jet streak. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego and Riverside Counties where the strong cold front will act as a focus for potential flash flooding. Elsewhere, a developing low pressure system will focus heavy rain and thunderstorms across the central Gulf Coast tonight. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The low pressure system will then move into the eastern Gulf Coast and spread heavy rain and thunderstorm activity into the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) is in effect for portions of south Florida where isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible in the morning. An omega block ridge will persist over the central-eastern U.S. through early next week, which will support above average temperatures across the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and Midwest. The highest anomalies of around +30-40 degrees will occur over portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley where high temperatures will be in the 40s while low temperatures drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php