Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 221 PM EST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 00Z Wed Feb 07 2024 - 00Z Fri Feb 09 2024 ...Heavy rain and flash flooding threat continues in the Southwest today... ...Heavy Snow for the Intermountain West mountains through mid-week... ...Temperatures will continue to run above average from the Plains to the Northeast with record breaking warmth for parts of the Upper Midwest... Showers and thunderstorms have expanded into the Desert Southwest ahead of a deep upper trough that is slowly moving east into the region. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding through tonight in Southern California and western and central Arizona, especially for the Transverse and Peninsula ranges and Mogollon Rim where terrain will enhance rainfall. Although rain rates/totals will be trending downward across Southern California compared to the last couple of days, the risk for flooding and mud/debris flows remains elevated given the very wet antecedent conditions. For higher elevations, snowfall rates will be coming down for the Sierra Nevada and remain heavy for elevations above 7000 feet in the Transverse/Peninsular ranges. Conditions will improve through the rest of the week as precipitation becomes lighter and the flash flood threat decreases. As the upper trough moves further inland, precipitation will expand across the Intermountain West through mid-week. Heavy snowfall is forecast for many of the regional mountain ranges over the next couple days, with particularly high totals expected in the Four Corners region where amounts of 2+ feet will be possible. Other ranges of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies will see totals generally between 6-12", with some locally higher amounts possible. Lower elevation/valley locations across the region will see a mix of moderate rain and snow showers, although any snow accumulations are expected to remain limited. Height falls beginning to overspread the Northern/Central High Plains will also lead to enhanced lee cyclogenesis and a developing low pressure/frontal system Wednesday. This will bring increasing chances for wintry precipitation spreading eastward across the Northern High Plains as the system strengthens. Some freezing rain and sleet will be possible, as well as for a few inches of snow, particularly for northeastern Montana. Elsewhere, the Midwest, South, and East Coast will remain mostly dry through mid-week. Upper-level ridging over the central/eastern U.S. will keep temperatures generally mild and above average from the Plains to the Northeast/Appalachians, with below average temperatures along the coastal Southeast and west of the Rockies. Highs across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest in particular continue to remain upwards of 20-30 degrees above average, with 40s and 50s forecast. Some daily record-tying/breaking high temperatures will be possible for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions today through Friday. Precipitation chances will return to the Midwest, South, and East later this week into this weekend as a frontal system pushes east. Dolan/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php