Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 PM EST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 00Z Sat Feb 10 2024 - 00Z Mon Feb 12 2024 ...Winter storm to impact portions of the southern to central High Plains beginning late Friday night and continuing into Sunday... ...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding on Saturday from east-central Texas into the Tennessee Valley... ...Above average warmth will shift eastward into the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday with potential records for some locations... Unsettled weather across the Intermountain West will shift eastward through early Saturday morning before organizing ahead of a closed mid-level low to cross the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Colder temperatures will filter into the Great Plains behind a cold front with areas of accumulating snow developing through Saturday afternoon over the Colorado Front Range into southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. As the upper level storm continues to organize Saturday night, areas of moderate to heavy snow snow are expected to expand across the southern High Plains with 4-8 inches expected for portions of the Texas Panhandle into northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado. Higher accumulations of 12 to 18 inches are likely into the higher terrain, including the Sangre De Cristo Mountains before the storm pulls away during the day on Sunday. High temperatures will also be about 10 to 20 degrees below average on Sunday across most of the southern High Plains. Ahead of the storm system impacting the Plains will be returning moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into eastern Texas, the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue for portions of the Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and Kentucky through Saturday morning, but thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous Saturday afternoon over central/eastern Texas, spreading eastward through the Mississippi Valley. Locally heavy rain is expected from eastern Texas into eastern Tennessee where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place for Saturday/Saturday night, highlighting the greatest potential for flash flooding. Meanwhile, potential record breaking warmth will translate eastward into the Midwest, northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday with high temperatures of 20 to 30 degrees above average anticipated. Skies will be mostly cloudy with chances of rain but there will still be the possibility of record breaking high temperatures, especially along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston and into portions of Upstate New York. Temperatures will lower a bit for Sunday behind a weak cold front but still remain 5 to 15 degrees above average for the region. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php