Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 157 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 11 2024 - 00Z Tue Feb 13 2024 ...Winter storm to impact the Central/Southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains going through the weekend... ...Areas of severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding will be possible through Sunday from central and eastern Texas into the Mid-South... ...Potentially record-setting warmth expected tonight across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast... A winter storm associated with a strong upper-level trough and closed surface low will begin spilling east out across areas of the High Plains tonight. Colder temperatures and areas of heavy precipitation will yield heavy accumulating snowfall for the higher terrain, with specific emphasis on the Sangre De Cristo range of south-central to southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Areas from the Front Range south all the way into the Texas Panhandle will see snow develop and become locally heavy as well, as the storm system gradually ejects east out into the Southern Plains by later Sunday. Snowfall accumulations of as much as 4 to 8 inches are expected for locations away from the higher terrain and over the immediate High Plains. However, accumulations of 6 to 12 inches can be expected over the Southern/Central Rockies, with some isolated 12 to 18 inch amounts expected over the Sangre De Cristo range and Sacramento Mountains. The energy associated with this ejecting winter storm will also be interacting with a cold front that will be slowing down and eventually stalling out across areas of the South. As multiple waves of low pressure gradually eject east out of the Rio Grande Valley and along this front, the pooling of moisture and instability from the Gulf of Mexico should set the stage for multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The front which will extend across areas of central and eastern Texas into the Mid-South, will support a threat of severe weather for tonight through Sunday including a threat for locally damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) across portions of central to eastern Texas. The low pressure system is forecast to pick up steam and organize as it moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast on Monday. Thus, the Severe Weather threat shifts into the Southeast on Monday where a Slight Risk is in effect. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall is expected, and areas of the Mid-South in particular may see locally several inches of rain from instances of training showers and thunderstorms going through early Sunday. This will drive a threat for flash flooding, and the the Weather Prediction Center has accordingly depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for this region. Adjacent areas of the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast by later Sunday into Monday will also see a threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms as low pressure finally consolidates and lifts northeastward into the Mid-South. Elsewhere, very mild temperatures are expected for many areas of the northern and eastern U.S. as there continues to be a lack of cold air dropping south from Canada. Potentially record-setting warmth is expected for tonight across the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast where temperatures will be as much as 15 to 25 degrees above average. Kebede/Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php