Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 13 2024 ...A significant winter storm will continue impacting the Southern Rockies and High Plains today before turning northeast and aiming for the Northern Mid-Atlantic, New York, and New England early this week... ...Areas of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will impact the Gulf Coast states and Southeast for the remainder of the weekend and through Monday... ...Above normal temperatures to generally persist into early next week for much of the northern and eastern U.S., with below normal temperatures across the South... A significant winter storm associated with a strong upper-level trough and associated closed low will cross the southern Plains today which will continue to focus areas of heavy snowfall across portions of the southern Rockies and especially the adjacent areas of the southern High Plains. Additional snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches will be possible for areas of the Texas Panhandle. As low pressure consolidates and deepens off to the northeast toward the Arklatex region by tonight, some snowfall will also begin to overspread areas of Oklahoma as marginally cold air combined with moisture wrapping northward of the low center focus areas of moderate to locally heavy snowfall. Farther south and east across the Gulf Coast states, Mid-South, and Southeast, low pressure will be approaching today through tonight, and this coupled with moisture and instability pooling along a strong frontal zone draped over the region will favor numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some severe weather is expected, and this will include a concern for strong damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) from eastern Texas to Alabama for today and tonight, and then for the Southeast on Monday. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall is expected, and there may be enough rain across portions of the Mid-South and Southeast to produce at least an isolated threat for flash flooding where any areas of showers and thunderstorms train over the same area. Locally a few inches of rain will be possible across these areas as the low center gradually crosses through the Tennessee Valley and aims for the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday night. As the storm system arrives across the Mid-Atlantic region, the concern will again turn to a threat for significant winter weather as moisture surging northward ahead of the strengthening low center begins to encounter sufficient levels of cold air for a swath of heavy accumulating snowfall. The primary corridor of heavy snow is expected to set up across northern Pennsylvania and southern New York before tracking into southern New England on Tuesday as a very deep low center edges offshore of the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. Locally as much as 6 to 12 inches of snow can be expected north of this low track. Strong winds and coastal flooding will also accompany this evolving nor'easter threat. Meanwhile, farther south closer to the track of the low itself, areas of heavy rain can be expected given the presence of warmer temperatures. Despite the threat of heavy accumulating snowfall for areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England early this week, temperatures across large areas of the northern and eastern U.S. will remain above normal given the lack of cold air transport south from Canada. Temperatures across large areas of the South though will actually be below normal given the extensive cloud cover, and threat for heavy precipitation. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php