Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 12 2024 - 12Z Wed Feb 14 2024 ...A significant winter storm crossing the Mid-South today will transition to a strong nor'easter for the Mid-Atlantic and New England by Tuesday... ...Areas of severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding will be possible across portions of the Southeast today... ...New storm system to arrive across the Northwest by the middle of the week with areas of locally heavy rain and mountain snowfall... A significant winter storm associated with a strong upper-level trough and associated closed low will cross through the Mid-South today, and the Ohio Valley tonight, which will continue to interact with enough cold air to produce some areas of locally heavy snowfall across portions of the Ozarks and gradually the Ohio Valley to the north of the low track. Locally several inches of accumulation are expected, with portions of the Ozarks expected to see in excess of 6 inches of snow. Farther south and east across the Southeast, and on the warm side of the strengthening area of low pressure crossing the Mid-South, the northward advance of moisture and instability from the Gulf of Mexico and its interaction with a strong frontal zone will produce numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some additional severe weather is possible today, with concerns for locally strong damaging winds, isolated instances of large hail, and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) from central and southern Alabama eastward across central and southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and into southern South Carolina to address this threat. In addition to the severe weather threat over the Southeast, heavy rainfall is expected, and there may be enough rain to produce isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) across portions of the Southeast to address this concern. This storm system will be arriving across the Mid-Atlantic states tonight and be transitioning to a strong nor'easter Tuesday morning as low pressure exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast near the Delmarva and ejects well offshore of southern New England by Tuesday night. The concern will refocus back to winter weather impacts as moisture surging northward ahead of the low center encounters sufficient levels of cold air for a swath of heavy accumulating snowfall. The primary corridor of heavy snow is expected to set up across central and eastern Pennsylvania through northern New Jersey, southeast New York, and much of southern New England. Many of these areas will see 6 to 12 inches of snow, with some areas especially over the higher elevations near the Poconos, Catskills, and adjacent areas of southern New England seeing in excess of 12 inches. The nor'easter will bring strong winds to the region on Tuesday which coupled with the heavy snowfall could damage trees and power lines. The strong winds will also bring a threat for coastal flooding. A new storm system meanwhile will arrive across the Northwest by the middle of the week which will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the coastal ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and heavy snowfall for the higher elevations of the Cascades. This snowfall threat will also extend eastward into the northern Rockies as Pacific moisture streams inland. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php