Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 215 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 21 2024 - 12Z Fri Feb 23 2024 ...Rain and snow impacts across California come to an end today... ...Above average temperatures across the lower 48 into late week... ...Critical Fire Weather day over portions of the Southern High Plains on Wednesday... Rain and snow showers will gradually weaken across the state of California today before coming to an end tonight. In the meantime, snow showers will produce 6-12 inches of new snow for the Intermountain West and Central Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis over the lee of the Rockies will support strong west/southwesterly winds carrying dry air out of the Southwest and into the Southern High Plains this afternoon. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Critical Risk of Fire Weather over portions of southeastern New Mexico into far western Texas. The upper-level trough responsible for the unsettled weather in the West will quickly move across the Rockies today and into the Plains by Thursday. This will spawn a low pressure system over the Central/Southern Plains which will tap some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it moves across the Mississippi Valley. This interaction will produce rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will generate temperatures that are well above average across the Plains and Mississippi Valley today. Temperatures will be anywhere from 20-30 degrees above average in these areas. Southerly flow will send mild temperatures streaming into the East Coast on Thursday ahead of the approaching low pressures system. The Florida peninsula will remain below average temperature-wise through the end of the week. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php