Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 120 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 22 2024 - 00Z Sat Feb 24 2024 ...Spring-like warmth east of the Rockies into late week... ...Critical Fire Weather day over the Southern High Plains today; Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow... ...Showers and thunderstorms expected over the Missouri/Ohio Valley beginning late tonight... Spring-like warmth remains the big weather story east of the Rockies as lee-side low pressure induces strong southerly flow into the Heartland ahead of a progressive upper-trough. A lack of substantial moisture feeding into the developing system will make for a dry short-term forecast at least through the afternoon. While this warm and dry weather will make for a pleasant afternoon for most, the pattern also supports Critical (level 2/3) fire weather conditions across the Southern High Plains today when combined with gusty winds tied to an approaching Pacific cold front. Fire weather conditions will generally abate tomorrow as the low pressure area pulls away, although Elevated (level 1/3) fire weather conditions can still be expected over the Big Bend of Texas per the Storm Prediction Center. Beginning overnight into tomorrow, expanding showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Missouri/Ohio Valley as the upper-trough and cold front sweep through, leading to locally heavy rainfall exceeding an inch. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall is in effect tomorrow over the Ohio Valley. Asherman Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php