Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 AM EST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024 - 12Z Tue Mar 05 2024 ...Winter storm in the West producing powerful blizzard in the Sierra Nevada begins to wane through the day Sunday; more snow expected to begin Monday... ...Accumulating snowfall near the Canadian border across Montana and North Dakota with a wintry mix from North Dakota to northern Minnesota... ...Another coastal storm is forecast to bring additional rain along the Mid-Atlantic coast later on Monday... ...Much above average, Spring-like temperatures shifting from the Plains/Midwest into the Northeast as Critical Fire Weather threat persists in the central/southern High Plains... Conditions in the West which has been impacted by widespread heavy mountain snows, gusty winds, and a powerful blizzard in the Sierra should begin to improve by Sunday morning as a moisture plume form the Pacific weakens and the track of upper-level energies shifts northward. Winds will wane in intensity, though some additional heavy snowfall is expected through the day, particularly for the southern Cascades/Sierra, Wasatch, and central Rockies. However, additional upper-level energies approaching the West Coast Monday look to quickly bring back increasing precipitation chances, including heavy snowfall, to the southern Cascades/northern Sierra, and potentially inland across the northern Great Basin. Timing and the location of the heaviest amounts remains a bit uncertain at this time, but another influx of moisture from the Pacific is expected. Rain showers and thunderstorms will persist along the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California as a surface trough lingers along the coast. Some locally heavy rainfall may occur Monday as the next system moves in, particularly along southern Oregon into northern California. Upper-level energy shifting eastward away from the West is helping to organize/deepen a low pressure/frontal system over the Northern Plains this morning, which is forecast to track eastward towards the Midwest/Great Lakes Monday. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected to the northwest of the surface low track as colder air spreads in from the north, most likely along the Canadian border from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. A wintry mix is expected to the east from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. The deepening low will also bring some gusty winds, with the potential for blowing snow where snowfall does occur. To the south and east across the Mississippi Valley/Midwest, initially limited moisture will keep precipitation chances very low through Monday morning despite the approaching frontal system. However, southerly return flow from the Gulf will eventually begin to lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through the day Monday and particularly Monday night. Deeper moisture over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley may result in some locally heavy rainfall and an isolated instance or two of flash flooding. Some severe thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging winds may also be possible. Showers will end Sunday morning in New England as a coastal storm departs the region east into the Atlantic. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary lingering southwestward along the coast of the Southeast and into Florida will keep storm chances up there through the day Sunday. Then, on Monday, another coastal low is expected to organize along the Carolinas and begin to move northward, bringing additional shower chances into the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning, especially for coastal areas. Widespread much above average, Spring-like high temperatures will persist across the central/eastern U.S. Sunday and Monday. The greatest anomalies of 25-35 degrees will stretch from the Lower/Middle Missouri Valley northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes Sunday, shifting into the Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and interior Northeast on Monday. Numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs are possible as temperatures reach into the 70s for most locations. Conditions will also be rather warm across the central and southern Plains Sunday, with temperatures well into the 70s and even low to mid-80s. Unfortunately, persistent lee troughing leading to gusty winds and dry conditions will continue the threat for wildfires along the central and southern High Plains, with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) outlined by the Storm Prediction Center. Along the East Coast, highs are forecast to range between the 40s and 50s for New England, 50s and 60s for the Mid-Atlantic, and 70s to low 80s for the Southeast/Florida. In the West, highs will remain cooler and below average, ranging from the 30s and 40s in the Pacific Northwest and much of the Interior West, 50s in northern/central California, 60s in southern California, and 60s and 70s into the Desert Southwest. The coldest spot in the country will be in the Northern Rockies/adjacent High Plains, where highs will be in the teens and 20s following a couple cold front passages. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php