Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 AM EST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 07 2024 - 12Z Sat Mar 09 2024 ...Storm system to bring the threat of flash flooding and severe weather to the Southern Plains Thursday, spreading eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast Friday... ...Areas of moderate to heavy snow expected for the Central Rockies/High Plains Thursday... ...Another Critical Risk of Fire Weather Thursday for the Southern High Plains... ...High temperatures remain above average and Spring-like for the eastern U.S. with below average temperatures in the West... A complex weather system evolving over the central U.S. will bring showers and thunderstorms with the threat of severe weather and flash flooding to the Southern Plains/Southeast, a risk of wildfires in the High Plains, and some areas of heavy snow over the Rockies/Central High Plains over the next couple of days. Upper-level troughing approaching from the west will help to deepen/organize a low pressure/frontal system over the Southern Plains, further reinforced by a Pacific system moving in from the West. Southerly moist Gulf return flow ahead of a sharpening dryline will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances to the Southern Plains beginning as early as Thursday morning. Increasing deep-layer shear with the approach of the upper-level trough as well as sufficient CAPE will bring the threat for a few severe thunderstorms, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted central Texas and western Oklahoma/south-central Kansas with Slight Risks of Severe Weather (level 2/5) for some instances of large hail along with damaging winds and an isolated tornado. In addition, the increasing moisture will lead to some heavier downpours, and the threat for a couple rounds of storms evolving downstream over north Texas Thursday evening has prompted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for some scattered instances of flash flooding, particularly for urban areas in the DFW metroplex. Very dry conditions will exist west of the dryline over the Southern High Plains, which when combined with warm temperatures and gusty winds has prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) form the Storm Prediction Center. To the northwest, a secondary frontal system pushing southward will bring much colder air into the Central Rockies/High Plains. Areas of moderate to heavy snow are expected to continue through the day Thursday for portions of the Central Rockies, particularly along the Front Range in Colorado. In addition, confidence has increased in a round of snow bands moving through portions of northeastern Colorado into western Nebraska bringing heavy snow rates of 1-2"+ per hour and several inches of accumulating snow, with Winter Storm Warnings now in effect. The snow should come to an end for the High Plains into Friday morning, with chances in the mountains shifting southward into the Southern Rockies. The system will continue eastward Friday, with an expanding area of shower and thunderstorms spreading into the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. A reinforcing influx of more anomalous moisture flowing northward with a warm front from the Gulf will bring a higher threat for more widespread heavy downpours compared to Thursday, with the expectation that clusters of storms will bring repeated rounds of rainfall along the frontal boundary into Friday night. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) has been introduced from east-central Alabama into northern Georgia where wet antecedent conditions from the night before will further help increase the threat for some scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding, particularly for urban areas in the greater Atlanta region. A broader Slight Risk is in place from the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward through the Southern Appalachians. Another round of severe weather is also expected, with a Slight Risk of Severe Weather stretching from eastern Texas/southeastern Oklahoma through the Lower Mississippi Valley and towards the central Gulf Coast. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. Elsewhere, the noted Pacific system eventually reaching the Plains will first move eastward from California into the Great Basin/Southwest on Thursday, with some light to moderate rain/snow showers for the Great Basin and a few thunderstorms in the deserts of the Southwest. Some light to moderate showers will taper off through the day Thursday in southern New England as a frontal system departs the region, with the potential a bit of snow may mix in. Some additional light snowfall accumulations will be possible further north into Maine. Showers and thunderstorms will also continue in South Florida Thursday ahead of a cold front. Finally, an approaching Pacific system will bring increasing precipitation chances to the Pacific Northwest later Thursday and into Friday morning. Temperature wise, highs will remain above average for much of the eastern U.S. ahead of the frontal systems approaching from the west over the Plains. Highs will range from the 40s and 50s in the Upper Midwest east through the Great Lakes and New England; the 50s and 60s from the Middle Mississippi Valley east through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic; and the 60s and 70s from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Portions of the Central/Southern Plains will be above average Thursday, with highs in the 50s and 60s in the Central Plains and 70s and 80s in the Southern Plains. Cold fronts passing through with the central U.S. system will bring some much cooler temperatures Friday, with highs dropping to the 40s and 50s for western portions of the Plains. The Northern Plains will recover Friday following a chilly day Thursday, with highs in the 20s and low 30s rising into the upper 30s and 40s. Temperatures will generally remain below average in the West, with 30s and 40s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, 50s and 60s for California, and 60s and 70s into the Southwest. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php