Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 14 2024 - 00Z Sat Mar 16 2024 ...Heavy snow over parts of Central Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday and the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans Thursday night into Friday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Plains and Mississippi Valley from Wednesday to Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and Thursday, extending into Southeast and Tennessee Valley on Friday... A wave of low pressure along a front over Central Plains moves northeastward to the Northeast by Friday. The storm will create a significant and long-duration winter storm across the Central and Southern Rockies beginning Wednesday, followed by a round of heavy snow for the Southern Rockies and Four Corners region Thursday night. The winter storm will spread heavy snow Wednesday night across the Central Rockies through Friday, with snow expanding into the Southern Rockies beginning Thursday. A second round of heavy snow will develop over the Four Corners late Thursday and persist into the weekend. Heavy snow across the Central/Southern Rockies will become heavy Wednesday night across the Central Rockies with snowfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour possible (40-60%) in the Front Range Wednesday evening and Thursday. The snowfall rates are expected (greater than 90%) to produce more than 1 foot of snow across much of the Front Range, Foothills, Sangre de Cristos, and San Juans. Locally, 2-4 feet of snow are possible (20-30%). The storm will significantly impact travel. The combination of heavy snowfall rates and wind gusts exceeding 35 mph will cause blowing snow and severely restricted visibility, especially along the I-25 urban corridor and other mountain roads in the region. Travel will be difficult to impossible. Expect road closures. Disruptions to infrastructure due to power outages are also possible. A second phase of the winter storm will impact the Four Corners Region beginning Thursday night. Waves of heavy snow will affect the terrain areas north of the Mogollon Rim and northeastward toward the San Juans and southern Colorado Rockies. Snow probabilities for 8 inches are moderate to high (greater than 50%). Localized totals above a foot are possible for the higher terrain. Moreover, rain will develop over the lower elevations of the Southwest and Southern Rockies. Furthermore, overnight Wednesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will expand along the front from the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the area. In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. On Thursday, the showers and severe thunderstorms move south and eastward into the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the area. Further, the showers and thunderstorms will expand into the Great Lakes. Similarly, showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of these areas from Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. By Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will decreased to a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. However, the threat of excessive rainfall continues on Friday. Once again, showers and thunderstorms produce heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the WPC issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over these areas on Friday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Also, on Friday, as the wave of low pressure moves into the Northeast, rain moves into the Northeast with snow at the higher elevations of New York State and Northern New England. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php