Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 17 2024 - 00Z Tue Mar 19 2024 ...Heavy lake-effect snow over parts of the western U.P. of Michigan and lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes; moderate to heavy snow over the Southern Rockies... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and Western/Central Gulf Coast... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of southern Texas... A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains will move off the Northeast Coast by Sunday evening. In the wake of the front, upper-level energy moves across the Great Lakes and the Northeast through Monday evening. The upper-level energy will create lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes. The heaviest lake-effect snow will be over the western portion of the U.P. of Michigan from Saturday evening into Sunday evening. A second area of heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind from Lake Ontario Sunday night into Monday. In addition, snow will develop over parts of the Central Appalachians and the higher elevations of the Northeast, likewise, from Sunday evening into Monday. Moreover, an upper-level low over the Four Corners Region will produce moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies through Sunday evening. The energy will also create snow and lower-elevation rain over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Southern Rockies through Monday. Meanwhile, a second front extending from the Southeast to southern Texas will move off the Gulf Coast on Monday. With favorable upper-level flow, showers and severe thunderstorms develop over parts of southern Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of southern Texas through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an increased threat of hail, two inches or greater, over South-Central Texas. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will also have heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. On Sunday, the severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly to a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) along the Western/Central Gulf Coast through Monday morning. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The threat of excessive rainfall ends by Monday. However, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida through Monday evening. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php