Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 31 2024 - 12Z Tue Apr 02 2024 ...Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona... ...There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Sunday; there is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys on Monday... A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Plains will be quasi-stationary through Monday morning. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will pool along the boundary, creating showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Farther east along the boundary, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms increases over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an increased threat of EF2 to EF5 tornados over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Western Ohio Valley. In addition, there is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater in size over parts of the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys from Monday to Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Likewise, showers and thunderstorms will extend into the Central Appalachian and Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Meanwhile, the threat of excessive rainfall is a Marginal Risk over parts of Southern California and Arizona on Sunday. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff and burn scars. In addition, the moisture streamed inland due to the upper-level low off the Southern California Coast will aid in creating heavy snow over the higher elevations of Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona through Monday. Moderate to heavy snow will linger over parts of Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico from Monday evening into Tuesday. Rain will develop over lower elevations of the Southwest and Southern Rockies, ending on Tuesday. Additionally, light to moderate snow will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday. The snow will linger over the area on Monday and end overnight on Monday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php