Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 09 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024 ...Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat will expand across the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday, reaching into Midwest, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast by Thursday morning... ...Critical fire danger shifts into Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley... Following the 2024 Great American Eclipse, a developing low pressure system over the southern Plains will become the main weather story for the next couple of days. A vigorous upper-level trough exiting the southern Rockies/ northern Mexico will continue to interact with moisture returning from the Gulf of Mexico to deliver sprawling areas of heavy rain and embedded severe thunderstorms first across eastern Texas into the Arklatex region today, before expanding into the Texas Panhandle tonight. The dynamic interaction will then consolidate and intensify a low pressure system gradually over eastern Texas tonight, before taking the system more rapidly northeastward across the Arklatex region on Wednesday. It appears that a potent cold front trailing south from the low center will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas Wednesday morning, through the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, before reaching into the eastern Gulf states and the Florida Panhandle by early on Thursday. Less of a severe weather threat is forecast for areas north of the low pressure center track. Meanwhile, heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns from the Texas Panhandle tonight, with the highest threat across the Mid-South through Wednesday, before spreading into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes early on Thursday. Winds will become increasingly strong and gusty as the low pressure system becomes quite strong by Thursday morning. Outside of the intensifying low pressure system, relatively quiet weather is expected for the next couple of days. The cloud cover and areas of rain across the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes are forecast to taper off tonight as an old cyclone continues to fill and depart into southern Canada. Scattered showers will then reach into the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night, and continue to spread into New England Wednesday night. The Pacific Northwest will see the arrival of a frontal zone with some moisture and high elevation light snows into the northern Cascades and eventually Rockies Tuesday before drying out on Wednesday. A warming trend is in store for the West and East Coast, as well as the northern tier states while cooler than normal temperatures will linger across the South behind the intensifying low pressure system. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php