Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 328 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 26 2024 - 12Z Sun Apr 28 2024 ...An active weather pattern for much of the Plains into the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley regions... ...Thunderstorms to bring heavy rain, localized Flash Flooding and Severe Weather to portions of the Plains... ...An elevated to Critical Fire Weather threat across the Southern High Plains... ..Cooler than average temperatures expected from the Rockies to the West Coast and from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast, while much above average temperatures spread from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes... A dynamic weather system is poised to bring significant weather impacts across the Plains extending into the Mid-to-Upper Mississippi Valley regions this weekend. This system will usher in a variety of weather phenomena including thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and even severe weather conditions. Thunderstorm activity is forecasted to intensify across portions of the Plains, particularly in areas extending from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. These storms are likely to bring heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of localized flash flooding in low-lying and urban areas. There's a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas into western Arkansas and southern Missouri today. Another system emerging from the Rockies will bring the focus for heavy rainfall and severe storms back over the Southern Plains on Saturday. There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall over central to northeastern Oklahoma on Saturday. Furthermore, some of these storms may turn severe, with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. To that end, the Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of eastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri and southwestern Iowa today Another Enhanced Risk area was issued across parts of southern Iowa, eastern/central Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, northwestern Missouri, central Oklahoma and north-central Texas for Saturday as another system spawns another round of storms for the Central U.S.. While thunderstorms pose a threat to some areas, the Southern High Plains face an Elevated to Critical Fire Weather threat through this weekend. Dry and gusty conditions, coupled with low relative humidity levels, will create favorable conditions for the rapid spread of wildfires. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged, and residents should exercise extreme caution to prevent the ignition of fires. A cooler air mass will settle over regions stretching from the Rockies to the West Coast and from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Temperatures are forecasted to remain below average for this time of year. Conversely, a swath of much above average temperatures is expected to encompass areas from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Daytime highs will soar, potentially reaching unseasonably warm levels. Meanwhile, unsettled weather, including rain/snow showers and scattered to isolated thunderstorms are expected to spread across much of the West through Saturday. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php