Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 AM EDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 12Z Mon May 06 2024 - 12Z Wed May 08 2024 ...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Monday and a Slight Risk across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Northern High Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday... ...Heavy snow over the higher elevations from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern/Central Rockies... A front extending from the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains to the Southern Rockies will advance eastward to the Lower Great Lakes and southwestward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. The deep upper-level trough associated with the system will help produce heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and the Uinta Mountains on Monday. Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Pains on Monday and Tuesday. The system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska, western Iowa/Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma as the front moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, the moisture over the Northern High Plains will aid in creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High Plains through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, as the cold front moves across the Ohio Valley, the boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, extreme northeastern Arkansas, and a small portion of northern Tennessee. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be an additional threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the Ohio Valley. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Central Gulf Coast on Monday and over parts of the Northeast and Southeast on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another front onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move eastward to the Northern Intermountain Region and into Central California by late Monday afternoon. The northern half of the boundary will dissipate by Tuesday morning, while the southern half moves southeastward to the Southern Plains/Southern Rockies, linking up with the front and extending westward over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon. On Monday, rain and higher-elevation snow will develop over the Pacific Northwest as the system moves onshore over the Northwest. The snow will be heavy over the Southern Cascades. Snow will also develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region Monday night. On Tuesday, onshore flow will keep rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northwest. Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will aid in producing heavy snow over parts of the region. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php