Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 AM EDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 12Z Thu May 09 2024 - 12Z Sat May 11 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley/Southeast on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, and Southeast on Thursday... ...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Central Rockies on Thursday... On Thursday, a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Ohio Valley and then southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move eastward off most of the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday evening, lingering over Florida on Saturday. As the southern half of the boundary moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday, it will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern Texas, Louisiana, central Mississippi, Southern Alabama, and southern Georgia. The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley/Southeast through Friday morning. The potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Southern Plains to the Southeast. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the Southern Plains. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, far eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and western South Carolina. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, and Southeast through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. In addition, moderate to heavy rain will also develop over parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Middle Mississippi Valley. On Friday, the remainder of the front will move off most of the Atlantic Coast, while parts of the boundary will linger over Florida on Saturday. The system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of southern Georgia, extreme southeastern South Carolina, and northeastern Florida. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast from Friday into Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, some of the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of southern Georgia, extreme southeastern South Carolina, and northern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast/Southeast from Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Southwest to the Middle Mississippi Valley will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies from Thursday to Saturday morning. On Thursday, the system will produce heavy snow over parts of the Central Rockies. Moreover, overnight Thursday, a weak front moving out of Central Canada will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday morning and then advance eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Saturday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon into evening. Overnight Friday, the showers and thunderstorms move into parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on overnight Friday. Also, rain will develop over parts of the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php