Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 12Z Sun May 12 2024 - 12Z Tue May 14 2024 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next few days... ...Well above average temperatures expected throughout the West and north-central United States... Active weather is in the forecast for the southern U.S. over the next few days as a low pressure system sweeps across the South into the Southeast. A potent upper low will move over the Plains today, and low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies. The stalled frontal boundary across West Texas and New Mexico will lift northeast as a warm front, and warm, moist Gulf air will surge into the central/southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, and conditions will be favorable for scattered strong to severe storms from eastern Texas through central Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for this area. Potential storm hazards include large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. In addition to severe storm hazards, heavy rain falling on top of saturated soils will likely lead to flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley with an embedded Moderate Risk (level 3/4) area for particularly sensitive areas in east Texas and western Louisiana. The low pressure system will push eastwards this week, and the threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall/flash flooding will shift across the northern Gulf Coast to the Southeast. To the north, a front moving south across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region will produce showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, and precipitation will push into the Northeast Tuesday. Precipitation chances will also expand across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday ahead of the southern low pressure system. In the northern Rockies and northern Plains, a separate frontal system will be moving south across the region Monday into Tuesday, and low elevation showers and storms and high elevation snow are expected. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday for the West Coast and Southwest. Summer-like temperatures will continue today across much of the West and north-central U.S. with well-above average highs in the 70s and 80s, and potentially the lower 90s for some. Below average temperatures are forecast today for the rest of the central U.S. and much of the East Coast. Temperatures will remain above average in the West through Tuesday, but will begin to return to near normal Monday and Tuesday for the central and eastern United States. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php