Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 12Z Thu May 16 2024 - 12Z Sat May 18 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms along with significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas into the Gulf States through Saturday morning... ...Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S today... ...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week ... Rain will spread across the Southern Plains and Gulf states as a hot, moist airmass settles in across the South. This airmass will also attribute to stint of unusually hot temperatures for South Florida and Texas with heat indices rising above 100 degrees. Owing to the combination of oppressive heat indices and forecast record warm overnight temperatures in these areas, major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. The abundant moisture streaming northward as a warm front will pool over Texas and the western/central Gulf Coast which will further enhance rainfall efficiency and intensity as the cold front over the Southern Plains advances eastward. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected to fall over areas that are already sensitive from recent heavy rain and flooding. WPC has High Risk in effect for portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana today, which is a level 4 out of 4 for significant impacts. There will likely be numerous areas that will experience excessive rainfall and flooding. In additional to the rainfall threat, there will also be strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has an Enhanced Risk in place for today with the primary threats are large hail and damaging winds followed by a Slight Risk for Friday for the central Gulf states. WPC had another Moderate Risk depicted over southern Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued thunderstorm development on Friday. Along the Eastern Seaboard, coastal low pressure located over the southern DelMarVa will maintain locally heavy rainfall chances over Eastern Long Island and Coastal New England through the morning hours, with 2-3" of rain and isolated flash flooding possible as the storm wraps up offshore. Much of this activity in the Northeast will remain steady stratiform rainfall, with the bulk of robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Across the West, most locations will have dry and calm weather. Campbell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php